In the current offseason, the Minnesota Twins have not shown much activity, especially in terms of reshaping their lineup. To assert that there have been significant movements would be an overstatement. Consequently, the trajectory of their performance can be primarily based on the returning talent from the previous seasons. In this regard, during each offseason, one looks forward to the ZiPS forecasts developed by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski.
ZiPS, i.e., the projection system by Dan, utilizes a model encapsulating performance data from the last four years. Naturally, the recent season scores impact this model the most. This system is designed to visualize the potential performance of the team in the upcoming games. An interesting point to note from the projections this year is the potential competitiveness of the Minnesota Twins within their pool, which seems to lack strong contenders.
The Minnesota Twins, considered a well-structured and deep team, are anticipated to give a strong performance in the light of the current division. While Cleveland hasn’t made any noticeable effort to affirm their champion status, none of the other teams, particularly the Tigers and Royals, have made any significant roster changes. Therefore, amongst the mediocre competition, the Minnesota Twins stand a fair chance of performing exceptionally.
However, even with a seemingly high floor, the Minnesota Twins carry their share of weaknesses, which, as per ZiPS, lands them in the win projection range of 85-88. The AL Central division is projected to be a closely contested one, which suggests that the Twins will likely continue to play important games deep into September. Moreover, at this point, the depth of the team is highly dependent on internal resources.
In contrast to the previous year when prospects were elevated to cover gaps, the team strategy this year does not expect significant outside veteran help. Concerning the team’s high floor, it can only be accomplished if things proceed as planned, making this an ambitious expectation. In this regard, projections of 377 plate appearances could potentially signal some trouble for the team.
The predicted number falls just short of last year’s 388 plate appearances, indicating the Twins might experience the absence of considerable strength from the team for a significant duration. To this end, the performance of the Minnesota Twins, in large part, relies on the secondary players such as Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis who are expected to supplement the primary power sources.
Reflecting on the last season, the Minnesota Twins faced a notable disparity between the actual and anticipated stats. The top pitchers were unable to meet expectations, specifically Pablo Lopez, proving somewhat disappointing. Moreover, it was alarming to witness the subpar performance of the secondary pitching resources.
However, Szymborski’s projections detect some optimism in this area. According to the projections, Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober could potentially bring their ERA to 3.91 or even less. Furthermore, Matthews and David Festa are also on track to make substantial progress.
However, Chris Paddack’s performance forecasts are not very promising unless a budding prospect replaces or outperforms him. Hopes are high for the team’s bullpen to fulfill the vision it was built upon in the last season. Notably, last year the term ‘best bullpen in baseball’ was thrown around, and ZiPS shares this anticipation for 2025.
Reflecting on the previous season, Jhoan Duran’s performance was not at its best with an ERA of 3.64 against an FIP of 2.85. However, Szymborski’s projection predicts a promising 2.36 ERA and 76 strikeouts in just 61 innings for Duran. Furthermore, Griffin Jax is projected to remain in the bullpen.
If Duran and Jax manage to perform well in tandem, it could potentially lead to creating one of the most effective leverage relief pairs in baseball. While predicting the season’s outcome based entirely on projections is by no means foolproof, it does shed light on potential performances and development areas for the Minnesota Twins.