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On Wednesday, Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to assassinate President Vladimir Putin during a drone strike on the Kremlin, leading to strong denials from Kyiv and immediate calls for retaliation by Russian nationalists. This accusation comes without solid evidence and is just one in a series of reports regarding events far from the actual battlegrounds of the war. Kyiv denies any involvement in the alleged attack and suspects that it could be used as justification for further Russian aggression within Ukraine. If such a drone strike did indeed take place, it appears that the United States had no prior knowledge of it, according to three US officials speaking with NBC News.
Two of the US officials expressed doubt that a drone could get close enough to the Kremlin given the numerous air defense systems surrounding the area. If an attack on Moscow’s core did occur, even if it was thwarted, it would be a powerful demonstration of Russia’s vulnerability, especially considering the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive aiming to reclaim occupied territory. In a statement posted on its website, the Kremlin claims that Russian military and special services intercepted and disabled two attacking drones, which caused debris to rain down on government property, yet no casualties were reported.
Russian President Vladimir Putin survives assassination attempt by Ukrainian drone. pic.twitter.com/lvYmQMNQwS
— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) May 3, 2023
The Kremlin pointed fingers at Ukraine for the alleged assault, characterizing it as a planned terrorist attack and an attempt to assassinate the President right before Victory Day, the May 9th commemoration of the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany during World War II. The statement also asserted Russia’s right to take countermeasures at any time and place it deems necessary. At the time of the supposed attack, President Putin was not in the Kremlin.
Social media was flooded with videos showing an object exploding above the Kremlin, a fiery rooftop, and smoke rising from the vicinity. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, denied his country’s involvement, suggesting that local resistance forces could be responsible for any guerrilla activities. He also interpreted the incident as an indication that Russia may be preparing to launch a large-scale terrorist attack.
Serhiy Nikiforov, Zelenskyy’s press officer, reiterated to local media that Kyiv lacked information about the alleged nighttime assault on the Kremlin, stressing its focus on defending its own territory. Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, posted a series of fire emojis on his Telegram channel without any commentary but quickly deleted them thereafter. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov shared with state news agency RIA Novosti that Putin was not at the Kremlin during the supposed attack; instead, the President was working at a nearby residence.
The incident, according to Peskov, did not affect Putin’s schedule, and plans to hold the Victory Day parade in Red Square remain intact. Some military analysts questioned whether the alleged event could be classified as an assassination attempt. Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst and head of intelligence at Le Beck consultancy, speculated in a tweet that, assuming Ukraine was involved, the country aimed to ‘bring the war home to Russia’ through symbolic target strikes
As incidents of alleged attacks within Russia by Ukraine continue to rise, official denials have followed suit. Two US officials expressed doubt that a drone supplied to Ukraine by Washington could have traveled the distance from Ukraine to the Kremlin for an attack. The officials admitted they were unsure whether the report was a Russian disinformation campaign, adding that they were still trying to confirm the facts.
https://twitter.com/WinRussiawill/status/1653737512953626624?s=20
During a world press freedom event on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken advised caution when believing any information coming from the Kremlin. Leaked US intel documents reveal that, contrary to Western wishes, Ukrainian agents have carried out drone attacks within Russia. James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank in London, also expressed skepticism about the Kremlin’s version of events.
Nixey emphasized that the incident was not an assassination attempt on Putin, stating that it was either a warning shot by Kyiv or a false flag operation used by Moscow to justify more intense attacks on Ukraine or increased conscription. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has been ongoing for 14 months, and Kyiv’s military is expected to launch a counteroffensive soon. Russian forces have faced significant challenges in their own efforts to advance over the winter, with much of the fighting concentrated around the eastern city of Bakhmut, where both sides have suffered heavy losses.
After facing backlash for enlisting hundreds of thousands of military reservists last year, Russia has recently ramped up efforts to recruit volunteers for the war in Ukraine, utilizing sophisticated advertising campaigns and new legislation. As the crucial conflict escalates, there has been a noticeable uptick of incidents inside Russia, with both sides seemingly carrying out drone attacks.
Earlier on Wednesday, a significant fire broke out at a fuel depot near a crucial bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea, an incident initially attributed to a drone attack. Days earlier, another drone attack reportedly caused a fire at a nearby oil terminal, and explosions derailed freight trains in an area bordering Ukraine. According to Russia’s SB, seven individuals connected to Ukrainian intelligence were arrested and accused of planning a series of sabotage and terrorist acts in the annexed region.
The alleged drone attack on the Kremlin prompted Russian war hawks to speculate about potential escalation from Moscow in retaliation. Margarita Simonyan, head of Russian state broadcaster RT, who is also a strong pro-war public figure in the country, pondered on Telegram, ‘Maybe it will kick off for real now?’ Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian parliament’s lower house, demanded the use of ‘weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime’ in a post on Telegram.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s Wagner Group, whose mercenary forces have led the assault on Bakhmut, stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had already begun. He said that ‘the enemy has also become more active outside the historical borders of Ukraine — the Russian Federation.’ Prigozhin noted the increasing number of incidents in Russia involving trains and drones, predicting that activity would intensify in the near future, perhaps even within days.
The worrying increase of incidents within Russia’s borders, as both sides seem to undertake drone attacks, underscores the urgency of resolving the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin’s allegations of an attempted assassination on President Putin may have significant implications for the tense relations between the two countries, especially in the face of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The international community must remain vigilant and skeptical of unverified claims from both sides as the situation continues to unfold.