American authorities are increasingly sounding the alarm about foreign intervention in our election process. The main culprits in their sights are Russia, China, and Iran. In a number of confidential intelligence briefings this week, they detailed the confusing landscape where disinformation campaigns intensify, and the threat of cyberattacks is at its peak. As we move into October, often considered a volatile period of the election season with high stakes and limited time for retaliation, officials are bracing for increased interference attempts.
While Russian interests in supporting former President Donald J. Trump are open and well-known, Iranian influences, major players in the Ukraine conflict, are attempting to curb his chances of re-election. Their tactics include cyber sabotage of his campaign and serious breaches of their legal boundaries. It is anticipated that the Justice Department will soon indict an Iranian hacking group, believed to be tightly affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for these cyber intrusions, as well as their attempts on Washington journalists and other related profiles.
Meanwhile, China’s interests are somewhat ambiguous. Initially expected to be a key influencer in the elections, Beijing now appears undecided in its preferences. In response, they’ve shifted their focus towards local races, employing tactics that may threaten public trust in the democratic process.
From an initial perspective, these briefings could be mistaken for circa 2016 and 2020 tactics. In one such briefing, the officials stated that despite the continued support to Mr. Trump, Russia is still deemed ‘the most active foreign influence threat.’ They also noted that other nations are pouring internet content aimed at ‘fueling discord and undermining confidence in our electoral process’. It seems Russia’s efforts may be countered by those of Iran, even though these two countries have aligned interests in other domains.
China’s stance remains mystifying. There’s also a new wave of concern regarding the possibility of criminal tactics employed to incapacitate American cities, firms, and hospitals being used to disrupt the electoral preparations. Officials are unsettled by multiple potential scenarios.
Although the voting procedures on Nov. 5 are expected to be more secure than earlier elections, with 97% votes having some form of paper backup to enable more reliable recounts, the speculation of voting registration systems freezing up cannot be ruled out. Such scenarios could resemble ransomware attacks observed in Baltimore or Atlanta, or something akin to disruption of services at the Seattle airport.
American officials are apprehensive that difficulties in registering voters in the final pre-election weeks could skew the Nov. 5 results. Alternatively, it could serve as a convenient foil for pro-Trump officials in strategically important states like Georgia, providing them with a pretext to avoid certifying the vote.
Given these risks, intelligence officials have amplified classified and unclassified briefings. However, they have concerns that the highly polarized electorate is divided even on the subject of election interference. When Trump alerts that entities are maneuvering to manipulate the vote, he typically points at his domestic political rivals and election workers.
Whereas when Democrats mention interference, they usually blame Russia and its apparent leanings towards Trump. In a recent hearing by the Senate Intelligence Committee, representatives from Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet were grilled about their measures to counteract these foreign influence attempts.
Support for Ukraine under Democratic administration has made the November vote a strategic target for Russia. According to the latest US intelligence report, both Russia and Iran have been leveraging generative artificial intelligence technology to enhance their meddling efforts in the election.
While the use of A.I. has not been game-changing, it has allowed foreign powers to churn out higher quality propaganda at a faster pace. The officials alleged that Russia may have applied A.I. in conjunction with standard editing tools to forge versions of speeches delivered by the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, by adding statements in her voice that she originally did not make.
But, pulling off such artful manipulations in videos with artificial intelligence is challenging, and less sophisticated applications are relatively straightforward to detect. Hence, Russia has continued to resort to legacy methods of disinformation like staging fake video narratives using actors to disseminate their propaganda.
Given the severity of foreign threats and the serious implications for the integrity of the U.S. election process, all measures must be taken to ensure fair and trustworthy elections. Regardless of political ideology, the importance of defending the cornerstones of democracy against external threats cannot be qualitatively overstated.