As we enter the new year, it’s apparent that the electoral climate will be quieter compared to the political whirlwind of 2024. Nonetheless, voters across multiple nations will have their say in certain major elections and their consequences, particularly in terms of inflation impact, increasing right-wing populism, as well as the repercussions of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. In lieu of engaging in uncertain election projections, we’ve turned to expert insights from five countries – Canada, Germany, Chile, Belarus, and the Philippines – to glean an understanding of the key factors at play.
Alexander Lukashenko, known as Europe’s most enduring autocrat, is anticipated to retain his iron grip over Belarus, when he contests in the elections slated for January 26, 2025. Lukashenko has effectively stifled opposition voices since 1994, and it’s no surprise that none will oppose him in the upcoming elections. Among his supporters are the heads of several political parties who had perspectives divergent from Lukashenko previously, but now, they stand united in endorsing his core policies.
In the shadow of these seemingly open-and-shut elections, Belarus remains shackled by political constraints that prevent its citizens, especially those abroad, from voting freely and fairly. The Belarusian administration has ceased establishing poll booths at embassies following the extensive 2020 uprisings. During what has marked as a turbulent phase, protestors alleged wide-ranging electoral fraud in favor of Lukashenko while naturally gravitating towards Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s erstwhile opposition leader now spearheading the oppposition in exile from Lithuania.
Significant political repression ensues in Belarus even today, with more than 1,200 political prisoners being held in custody. Concurrently, a substantial number of Belarusians are forced to seek refuge in foreign lands. It is widely projected that if Lukashenko secures his position again in the 2025 presidential election, Belarus will bolster its alliance with Russia even more, offering launch sites for military operations and hosting Russian nuclear weapons, as was the case during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Over in Germany, the announcement of snap elections on February 23, 2025, has sparked widespread intrigue. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner consecutively led the Free Libertarians to abandon the coalition, leaving the Social Democrats and Greens without legislative majority. As a result, premature elections became a quick-reality necessity for Scholz’s struggling leadership.
Germany is on a razor’s edge both domestically and internationally. It finds its diplomatic and economic stature challenged by the Ukraine conflict while situated in the midst of increasing industrial rivalry posed by China and the hovering threat of disruptive trade strategies courtesy of ‘Don’t-mess-with-me’ Trump. On the home front, political parties are wrestling over immigration policies and expanding domestic investments, in spite of the stringent constitutional ‘debt brake’ in place that requires strict balancing of the national budget.
All said, it’s an uphill struggle for Scholz to retain his position given his plunging approval ratings that are distantly lagging behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union’s surging popularity. However, the Alternative for Germany party is also posing intense competition for the second slot in the race. This implies that Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, is currently the frontrunner for the chancellor’s position, although assembling a steady coalition could prove to be a convoluted affair.
For a while, the political landscape of the Philippines has dictated a single-term, six-year stint for presidents, with intermittent elections slotting local functionaries, lower-house district representatives, and importantly, twelve nationally elected senators. The 2025 elections fall firmly within this cyclical pattern. In this situation, the victorious senatorial candidates are typically those who have the president’s backing, indicating that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. might have the upper hand in the 2025 senatorial selections.
The shaky alliance between Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte, who wielded significant power during her father Rodrigo Duterte’s brutal drug crackdown, is another subplot brewing in this political drama. Upon winning her position, Duterte found herself sidelined by Marcos. In a proactive move to further consolidate his political standing and neutralize any attempts of a Duterte comeback in 2028, Marcos could use his authority in a Senate dominated by his supporters to impeach Duterte for alleged fund misappropriatory.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is potentially headed for trouble. Struggling in the polls and facing an imminent collapse of his frail coalition government, Trudeau may end up paying the political price for prioritizing contemporary left-wing priorities over more populist right-wing ideals. Despite his unwavering commitment to cultural tolerance and climate change, Trudeau’s policies have resulted in skyrocketing governmental expenses and deficits.
His conservative adversary, Pierre Poilievre, looks set to exploit widespread public resentment towards mounting inflation and promises to revive Canada’s flagging economy by re-championing its vast fossil fuel assets, directly countering Trudeau’s climate change plan. The coming election could effectively decide the future identity of Canada. Will Trudeau miraculously retain power and further his socialist agenda? Or will Poilievre succeed in shifting Canada towards more conservative populism?
Similar political scenarios are brewing in the South American nation of Chile. Their presidential elections are scheduled for November 16, 2025. However, due to the mandatory requirement of securing majority votes for a president, it’s likely that the final mandate will be decided in a runoff slated for December 14. Current President Gabriel Boric, who made history as the country’s youngest president at 35, is ineligible for re-election.
Boric has experienced substantial difficulty effectuating his Broad Front coalition’s policies, owing largely to the lack of a parliamentary majority. The result has left Chile in a constitutional deadlock with the populace rejecting two different proposed constitutional texts – one each from the left-winger and right-wingers. Even as Chile has regained some political and economic stability following years of social unrest and COVID-19 impacts, high crime rates and shifting foreign investment present new challenges.
As per current trends in Latin America and across the globe, the right-wing coalition Chile Vamos, with Evelyn Matthei at the helm, is potentially poised for a win in 2025. Nevertheless, the ruling coalition performed better than expected in the October 2024 local and regional elections, hinting that the result of the 2025 elections may not be predictable.
Whether it’s Lukashenko’s seemingly unopposed rule in Belarus, the potential populist shift in Canada, or uncertain tides in Germany, the Philippines, and Chile – this new year’s electoral calendar is a manifestation of the increasingly complex and shifting global political landscape.