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In a recent turn of events, betting odds have showcased a new GOP candidate trailing behind former President Donald Trump, pushing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) further behind. The emerging name is Vivek Ramaswamy.
Data aggregated by Election Betting Odds — managed by John Stossel and Maxim Lott — gathers insights from overseas bookmakers and prediction markets.
As per the latest figures, Trump leads as the overwhelming favorite with a 70% likelihood of securing the GOP nomination in 2024.
Surprisingly, Ramaswamy has overtaken DeSantis, holding a 9.6% chance against DeSantis’s 9.5%. Though a minimal lead, this shift is significant, given that DeSantis previously surpassed Trump in odds back in 2022.
It’s crucial to understand that these odds reflect the sentiments of actual bettors placing their money. Overseas betting metrics indicate Trump as a 2-5 favorite, with a potential return of $140 on a $100 wager if he triumphs.
Ramaswamy stands at roughly 9-1 odds, with a possible return of $1,000 on a $100 bet, and DeSantis at 10-1, providing an approximate return of $1,100 on a $100 bet.
The changing dynamics are seemingly unfavorable for DeSantis. His recent campaign changes include appointing James Uthmeier, his long-standing chief-of-staff, as his new campaign manager, replacing Generra Peck, who now serves as the chief strategist, as reported by Politico.
The DeSantis campaign has recently released nearly a third of its workforce and witnessed a drop in his poll standings.
Additionally, DeSantis has progressively distanced himself from Trump, denouncing Trump’s claims about the 2020 elections.
On the other hand, Ramaswamy remains a staunch Trump supporter.
He was present during Trump’s two latest indictments in Florida and Washington, D.C., and has even committed to pardoning Trump if elected.
However, as of 2022, Ramaswamy criticized Trump’s election fraud allegations.
Broadening the lens to the overall political landscape, odds from late 2022 to August 2023 suggest that President Joe Biden (or another Democratic contender) possesses a heightened chance of winning the 2024 re-election, with the current likelihood at 53%, while a GOP candidate stands at 45%.