Donald Trump, successful in his bid for presidency in 2024, pledged to resolve issues related to the country’s border, inflation, housing costs, and health care. In response to queries surrounding his campaign vows, we can report on certain key policy areas; concentrating on taxation, immigration, the Affordable Care Act, Social Security, and Medicare. With both the House and the Senate under Republican control, Trump’s political influence is set to be impactful.
Throughout his 2024 run for presidency, we diligently tracked and assessed 100 of Trump’s promises. A situation outside his immediate control was the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Interestingly, during his first tenure in the White House, Trump managed to either keep or achieve a compromise on approximately 50% of his campaign commitments. His transition spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, acknowledged the people’s strong faith in his ability to deliver on his promises, signifying a powerful mandate for his second term.
On the economic front, one question that arises is whether Trump plans on implementing tax breaks for middle-income Americans or additional child credits. Under Trump’s plan, his 2017 tax bill would not introduce new cuts, instead it aims to avoid a sudden tax increase set to occur if the law expired in 2025. However, no expansion of child tax credit has been promised. Though, he did propose a ‘baby bonus’ for families with newborns in March 2023, and has pledged to remove taxation on tips, Social Security, overtime pay, and car loan interest.
To enact these changes, Trump would depend on congressional support. In addition, he has committed to introducing a 10%-20% tariff on all imports. Garrett Watson, a senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, believes that the resulting price increase on consumer goods could potentially outweigh the benefits of the proposed tax changes.
Questions about Trump’s strategy towards housing and rental costs have also arisen. The only proposal he shared in this aspect was his plan to build ‘freedom cities’ on federal lands. The timeline for this initiative is unclear, and the immediate impact on the housing market is uncertain. Experts argue however, that stricter immigration controls could have an adverse effect on housing costs due to reliance on immigrant labor in certain construction trades.
The possible imposition of a 25% tariff on Mexico has raised concerns about the resultant costs of produce and other goods. The extent of the tariffs and whether there will be specific exemptions will determine the effect on food prices. If these tariffs are extensive and there are no exceptions, food prices could substantially increase. Ross E. Burkhart, a political scientist and trade specialist, asserts that it is unlikely that producers would discard the tariff costs and that prices would rise due to consistent demand and limited supply. Deporting immigrants could also adversely impact farming, leading to crop spoilage and increased costs.
Regarding Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan, specifics remain vague. Trump keeps stressing the need to deport criminals first, an idea not new to the political sphere. The involvement of local law enforcement and the National Guard is intended, though resistance from Democratic-controlled states and cities is expected.
The impact on the birthright citizenship during Trump’s presidency has also been questioned. Any changes to this law would likely face major legal resistance and could necessitate amending the constitution.
On the topic of abortion, Trump has advocated assigning legislations to individual states. Previously, during his first term, he supported a national ban on abortion after 20 weeks. His administration prevented organizations offering abortion services from obtaining federal funding, a directive that could be reinstated.
As the Affordable Care Act (ACA) remained intact despite Trump’s first term, it raises the question of whether Trump will attempt to repeal it during his tenure. While a full repeal of ACA is unlikely, alterations within the law are probable. Absent an extension of enhanced subsidies, people may witness an increase in premium rates and a potential rise in the uninsured rate.
In terms of Social Security, Trump maintains that he will not change the retirement age or reduce benefits. If he fulfills this promise, Social Security will carry on unchanged for the next couple of years. That said, Trump’s economic proposals could hasten the insolvency of Social Security, resulting in potential cuts to beneficiary payments.
Trump’s stance on same-sex marriage has shifted over the years. Despite initially believing that marriage should only be between a man and a woman, he later accepted it as a ‘settled’ matter decided by the Supreme Court. Given the Supreme Court’s ruling, that stance is not likely to change.
Trump’s administration could potentially impact transgender health care. His opposition to youth access to gender-affirming care is controversial to some, and his intention to pass a ban on it at the congressional level is drawing academic attention. A proposed ban on gender-affirming care for minors is currently being reviewed by the Supreme Court.
Trump’s approach to public school education is yet another area of interest. During his campaign, he echoed the sentiments of several conservative activists calling for the dissolution of the Education Department. The future of the Education Department, however, is likely to remain in limbo throughout his presidency.
As president, Trump is expected to home in on larger agenda items, so any direct impact on educational policies will likely be minor. With the Education Department’s future uncertain, it could lead to the elimination of certain programs or budget cuts.