Data released by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on October 22, 2024, sheds light on the events at the U.S.-Mexico boundary during the fiscal year 2024, which concluded on September 30. This annual span marked significant changes in the attempts of individuals to enter the U.S., owing to several crackdowns on migrants. These measures resulted in a temporary decrease in detained migrants but escalated humanitarian issues in the region.
A closer examination of the CBP’s data reveals several significant trends in migration and security along the U.S.-Mexico border for fiscal year 2024. The first and perhaps most notable of these is the temporary regression of migration figures due to intensified scrutiny. The report indicates that 2,135,005 individuals found themselves under CBP care from October 2023 to September 2024 – the lowest incidence rate observed since 2021 and displaying a 14% reduction from the previous fiscal year.
The subsequent drop in migrant apprehension figures by 25% from the previous year was a direct outcome of two separate, yet continuous, crackdowns on migrants. Starting from January, Mexico’s government implemented stricter policies to prevent migrants from passing through its territory en route to the U.S-Mexico border. This resulted in 925,085 reported encounters with migrants from January to August, almost thrice the total figure recorded for the entire previous year.
Rather than resorting to detaining or deporting, Mexico chose a different strategy to cope. The government relocated tens of thousands of these individuals to the country’s southern regions, ensuring they couldn’t easily make subsequent attempts to reach the U.S. border.
Simultaneously, in the U.S., following the significant reduction in migrant arrests owing to Mexican initiatives in December 2023, the Biden administration implemented additional regulations in June. These included a limiting of most access to the U.S. asylum system during periods of high migration activity. This policy led to a vast reduction in the number of asylum seekers permitted within U.S. borders.
An examination of the nationalities of these incoming migrants puts Mexico, Venezuela, Guatemala, Cuba, Honduras, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, El Salvador, and China at the top of the list in 2024. However, these crackdowns, although successful in curbing migrant numbers, have come at a heavy human price.
Third-party observers, including non-profit organizations and media outlets, reported a range of human rights violations associated with these crackdowns. Disturbing reports of maltreatment, enforced family separations, as well as offenses from criminals and corrupt officials such as kidnappings, assaults, theft, discrimination against race, gender, and the LGBTQ+ community, inadequate living conditions, denial of crucial healthcare services, and increased migrant fatalities have surfaced as consequential issues.
Despite the falling migration numbers brought about by the Biden administration’s rule, stagnation was observed in Border Patrol arrests – they have consistently flagged between 54,000 and 58,000 since July. Previous record-level drops in late 2023 started a slow ascension from August 2024. Unfortunate political developments such as the rejected opposition victory in Venezuelan elections on July 28 contributed to a surge in migrants from the region.
A crucial observation in 2024 was that a staggering 43% or 916,125 of the 2,135,005 migrants encountered were either children or individuals with children. Since the public release of family status records by Border Patrol in 2012, this figure represents the second-highest percentage ever reported. The major contributing nationalities were Mexico, Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, and Colombia.
The fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic drastically shifted the destinations of migrants attempting to cross the border. Prior to this, certain zones traditionally saw the highest volume of migrant activity – San Diego, California from 1973 to 1997; Tucson, Arizona – 1998 to 2012; and Rio Grande Valley, Texas – 2013 through December 2021. Post-pandemic, however, the preferences have been more mobile, with the ‘number-one’ sector changing every few months since 2022.
Further unsettling changes in the pattern of migration include Arizona’s decreasing rate from January to September. Furthermore, a faster decline rate has been noted in California since May, coinciding with the Biden administration’s asylum clampdown. This suggests a western movement in migration trends away from Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, Del Rio, and El Paso sectors, which were the earlier favorites.
The numbers regarding migrant deaths in the U.S. continue to be alarmingly high, mainly resulting from extreme climatic conditions, dehydration, drowning, or injuries from the border wall. Despite a slight decrease in the total number from 2022, when considered as a proportion of the migrant population, the figures remain distressingly consistent. For the year 2024, every 100,000 Border Patrol apprehensions saw the recovery of 37 migrant remains, a figure that may still increase.
On a different note, 2024 marked a shift in the pattern of contraband seizures. For the first time since its detection, seizures of the powerful opioid fentanyl decreased to 21,148 pounds in 2024, down from 26,718 pounds in 2023. This reduction is peculiar, given the deployment of more advanced detection technologies and targeted operations against smugglers.
Possible reasons for the abatement in fentanyl seizures may involve changing dynamics in Mexican organized crime. Other drug seizures paint a mixed picture – cocaine seizures rose by 10%, methamphetamine by 30%, while heroin decreased by 21% and marijuana by 8%.
The past decade’s experiences highlight the inadequacy of simply relying on crackdowns. An alternative solution lies in the development and expansion of well-regulated legal migration channels. The viable options involve work permits, humanitarian parole, a comprehensive refugee resettlement program, family reunion, temporary protection programs, and a functioning asylum system that reinstates the right to seek protection at the border.
Such an approach would rely on border management professionals who are held fully accountable for human rights violations. Moreover, a diplomatic and foreign assistance strategy that directly addresses the root causes of migration, supports countries in integrating migrants into their societies, and champions the battle against corruption could also play a pivotal role in providing respite to individuals and societies impacted by the current crisis.