Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a stalwart of the Republican party, has once again shown his incredible political resilience in the pivotal state of Michigan. While a recent poll presented by conservative organization American Greatness positions Vice President Kamala Harris slightly ahead of the former president, the margin remains tight. Harris narrowly edges out Trump with 48% versus his 46%, demonstrating the simmering competition within this election year.
Unmistakably, the battleground states such as Michigan are proving to be the linchpin in the outcome of this election. Remember, it’s the U.S. Electoral College system that actually determines the Presidential victor, assigning each state a predetermined amount of electoral votes, in accordance with its populace. The magic number any candidate aims for is 270 electoral votes.
Digging a bit more into history, the resilient Trump managed to secure Michigan back in 2016, to the surprise of the political sphere. Then, he won over the voters with 47.3% of the vote, outmatching his Democratic counterpart, the former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
However, in the subsequent 2020 election, President Biden was able to tip the scales back in favor of the Democrats in Michigan, securing 50.6% compared to Trump’s 47.8%. This was slightly better performance for Trump compared to 2016, signaling his growing popularity in the state.
A recent poll, parallel to American Greatness, conducted by RealClearPolitics, delivers consistent results in Michigan. As per the latest data, Harris is slightly outpacing Trump with 48.5%. Unyielding, Trump retains a strong hold with 46.5% support.
The political landscape observed a significant shakeup as Biden took the extraordinary step to withdraw from the race on July 21 and throw his support behind Harris. Interestingly, Harris then experienced a surge in popularity, gaining a solid lead over Trump in many national and swing state polls, whereas Biden generally lagged behind. Quite a curious turn of events, indeed.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling data, Harris maintains a 3.3-point lead over Trump with 46.8% to Trump’s 43.5%. Yet, the former president’s supporters around the nation remain stalwart, showing a persistent base that is undeterred.
In sight of The Economist’s national forecast model (published last Friday), both Harris and Trump hold nearly an equal chance of securing the coveted Electoral College win, each standing at roughly 1 in 2. Although the scientist’s election projection puts Harris narrowly ahead with an estimated 272 electoral votes to Trump’s 266, we must recall this is merely a forecast, subject to the strength of the resilient Trump and his loyal voter base.
Interestingly, the 2020 election saw Trump garnering 232 electoral votes, with Biden obtaining 306, according to the model. These numbers remind us of the dynamic nature of the political landscape and how easily the underdog can surge forward, as Trump has done time and again.
Indeed, the model by The Economist attempts to calculate the likelihood of each significant candidate winning each state, and subsequently, the Electoral College. Nevertheless, no model is without its limitations, and the Trump phenomenon is one that often defies conventional expectations.
In fact, the model identifies Pennsylvania as the state with the highest probability of being the ‘tipping point’ in the election with its 19 electoral votes. Clearly, the voters of Pennsylvania are as discerning and unpredictable as ever.
An Emerson College and RealClear Pennsylvania poll conducted recently showed a fascinating balance in Pennsylvania voter sentiment. Of 1,000 likely voters surveyed on August 13 and 14, Trump received 49% support compared to Harris’ 48%.
The same poll showcases a margin of error of 3%, ultimately placing the candidates in a statistical tie. Which goes to show, in this race, the resilience and appeal of Trump remain undeniable.