Even during the election night, there is a rather expected and familiar behavior observed: Donald Trump prematurely declaring himself as the victor, regardless of the projection made by news outlets. Interestingly, even with the past precedent of 2020, when Trump decided at an untimely 2 a.m. press conference, that ‘We did win this election’, without having any clear picture of who might have actually won, the country appears unprepared for what might ensue post Nov. 5
In a remarkable repeat of history post elections, we might find ourselves in a scenario where Trump is deemed ahead based on the initially revealed results in crucial states like Pennsylvania. Yet, by the weekend, we may see Kamala Harris, of all people, being declared the winner. The following period carries the potential for exponential misinformation, misunderstanding, and possibly even outbreaks of violent incidents.
The responsibility of ensuring that things do not spiral out of control falls upon the shoulders of the media, not to mention each one of us. There is a chance, however slim it might be, that Trump secures an outright, undisputed victory on the night of the election. However, history holds instances of all possibilities from a Bush v. Gore–type close shave of 2000, to Biden’s protracted victory through ballot-counting that lasted several days in the previous year.
Kamala Harris securing a landslide victory is yet another potential outcome. Regardless of how the results unfold, it is an almost certain outcome that we won’t be receiving a magnanimous admission of loss or an urging for patience from Trump. He is expected to either claim victory or make allegations of foul play.
Remember the 2020 elections marred by the pandemic, where the public was filled with dread about the blue shift or the so-called ‘red mirage’. Owing to the global health crisis, voters turned towards mail-in balloting for its safety. Contrary to this, Trump was busy disseminating false information implying mail ballots to be rife with fraudulent activities, causing fewer Republicans to opt for voting by mail.
Here’s a curious fact about the vote counting process: it takes less time to tabulate results from in-person voting compared to mail ballots. The process of validating mail-in ballots, checking for signatures among other regulatory measures, is a time-consuming one. This delay led the initial round of reported results to be primarily from Republicans and the subsequently reported results leaned towards Democrats.
An instance of such delayed reporting was seen in Pennsylvania, where Trump initially led Biden by a commendable 700,000 votes. However, in a turn of events, Biden was declared the winner by about 80,000 votes just a few days later. With the upcoming election, we stand a chance to witness a similar trend.
The fact that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are unique among the swing states in their refusal to modify their laws for pre-canvassing (or processing) of mail ballots prior to Election Day adds to the potential delay. The actual inspection and prepping for counting won’t start until the day of the election itself. So, what’s the solution to this confusing and possibly disruptive issue?
It is crucial for the message of patience to be disseminated to the public. Ground-breaking academic research suggests that prebunking, i.e., educating the public on why it takes time to verify election results, could yield a higher level of public trust and confidence in the process. Moreover, it falls on the media and cognizant observers to explain thoroughly and carefully the unfolding vote totals and the expected shift as the count progresses.
Questions about the timeline of results from cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta call for clarification. Providing this information in advance could ready everyone better for the ensuing events. Misinformation in the form of vague videos, potentially manipulated with artificial intelligence, alleging fraud, election workers interfering with the count, or ballot dumps are anticipated.
It’s worth noting however that legal actions taken against such false allegations could prove ineffective in deterring the culprits in real time. During the 2020 election, Twitter put in place a reliable trust and safety team to combat election lies. In a disappointing development this year, Elon Musk has allowed a platform – ‘X’ – to become a breeding ground for electoral disinformation, spreading misleading information to his extensive followership of 200 million.
The disinformation should be expected to get worse. Furthermore, we cannot overlook the potential for violence brewing during the period of uncertainty before media organizations have concrete data on pending ballots to conclusively call the election results. An alarming revelation made by U.S. government officials points at countries like Russia and Iran, believed to be instigating hostility, pitting Americans against each other.
With the current political climate, fatigue is inevitable. People are understandably tired with politics. It’s no surprise. However, many might get an unpleasant surprise when they wake up on Nov. 6. The election might be in a too-close-to-call situation, an over-confident Trump might have prematurely declared victory again, and the unsettling doubts about the identity of the next president might lead to complexities.
My advice? Brace for impact and standby. The results might be too close to call, with Trump potentially repeating his infamous premature declaration of victory. And the resulting uncertainty of not knowing who will be the next president for a few days could culminate in considerably bigger issues. The big question is, Are we ready for what’s coming after the election day?