The introduction of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee has signaled the reversion of the presidential race to a predictable commonality. The recent poll results from The New York Times/Siena College have revealed a neck-and-neck competition among potential voters in the four critical Sun Belt states. North Carolina and Arizona see Harris somewhat in the lead, whereas Georgia and Nevada appear to be tilting slightly towards Donald J. Trump. However, these marginal victories do not hold much importance due to the relative imprecision of state polls.
Looking at the grander scheme of things presents an interesting scenario in these four states. It’s strikingly a tie and this doesn’t bode well for Mr. Trump who requires a clean sweep of Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to secure any chance of victory in the forthcoming November election.
In the not-so-distant past, a tied scenario across the Sun Belt could have been dismissed with a yawn. The 2020 election saw President Biden average a slim margin of 0.4 points lead across these four states, a figure ironically mirrored in the latest Harris-Trump polls. Yet, it seems a dead heat in today’s climate suggests startling implications.
The drastic change in the election dynamics can be traced back to the earlier period when Trump’s appeal, particularly among the young, Black, and Hispanic voters, had handed him a surprising advantage across these youthful and ethnically diverse states. Harris may now be leading among the 18 to 29-age voters, but the shift is not as dramatic as one might expect.
Despite her lead, Harris is still polling slightly below the typical 60% Democratic stronghold among the young and Hispanic voters in these states — a figure far more impressive than Biden’s standing back in May. Even her perceived advantage among Black voters is less than what would be ordinarily expected for a Democrat in these territories.
It is speculated that the voter preferences may slowly transition along traditional demographic lines as November approaches. Yet, there could be a chance for the end results to echo the current polls, carrying forward the gradual racial and generational depolarization of the past decade, regardless of a young, black Democrat leading the ticket.
If you’re engrossed in the nitty-gritty of state-by-state results, you might find them somewhat perplexing — starkly different from the Northern battleground polls last week which consistently reported a 50-46 advantage for Harris. North Carolina, the only state among the four that opted for Trump in 2020, presents Harris with a barely perceptible two-point lead. On the other hand, Trump claims a four-point lead in Georgia, putting a six-point gap between these two states.
Of the two, Georgia’s poll seems easier to dissect. It is our third Georgia poll this cycle, offering some historical data for context. Previously, Georgia sided with Trump over Biden by an average of seven points. This slight Republican lean aligns with what we know about the state’s demographics, considering Biden’s underperformance among non-white voters.
However, the now even more prominent Republican tilt is mildly confusing, considering our previous observations and findings from other battleground states. North Carolina, on the other hand, is a wild card. This is our first poll of the state this season, so making predictions here would be premature.
Here’s a curious anomaly: in North Carolina, white Democrats were 39% more likely to respond than white Republicans. In comparison, in Arizona (where Harris is fairing best), the likelihood of response amongst white Democrats was merely 2% higher than Republicans.
It’s worth noting that other surveys also reveal Harris’ strength in North Carolina. Notably, a Cook Political Report survey administered by partisan professional firms revealed a one-point lead for Harris in the Tar Heel state. Despite this, North Carolina only marginally favored Trump in 2020 by 1.35 points.
Biden’s win in Georgia creates an illusion of stark dissimilarity between the two states. Nonetheless, North Carolina and Georgia are not as unalike as they seem. The gap is mere 1.6 points. If we hark back to previous midterms, Democratic candidates for the House performed better in North Carolina than Georgia, even as the Black turnout in the former was unexpectedly low.
Should North Carolina swing a touch more Democratic than Georgia in 2024? Two rapid theories spring to mind. Firstly, a more significant proportion of white voters are present in North Carolina compared to Georgia. Secondly, Democratic victories in Georgia might be contingent on winning over conservative, affluent, ‘Never Trump’ Republicans — a task Harris may find more daunting than Biden.
The authenticity of these theories can be questioned, understandably. But it’s worth noting that stranger things have happened in the world of politics than North Carolina shifting a smidge to the left of Georgia. The unique characteristics of states often lead to unpredictable election outcomes.
A peculiar trend this election cycle has been Biden performing better among likely voters than the broader group of registered voters. As it stands, Harris lags behind significantly among voters who claim they’re unlikely to participate in the election.
In summary, the race is far from predictable. The tightening grip in the Sun Belt states and fluctuating demographic inclinations paints a picture of a vigorous and dynamic political landscape. Yet, with every new poll, the nebulous future of American politics becomes just slightly more discernible.