The upcoming federal elections in Germany come with a somewhat unexpected twist, as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party begins to pull the attention of voters, with polling numbers above 20%. These figures suggest that the AfD is likely to secure a commanding position within the national parliament, the Bundestag. However, this does not necessarily mean the party is destined to be part of Germany’s next ruling coalition.
Indeed, other parties expected to acquire seats in the Bundestag have firmly pledged to exclude the AFD from any possible coalition government. This decision results from a long-standing principle amongst Germany’s central political forces, dictated by a collective commitment to prevent the far-right from accessing power. This shared conviction is particularly strong given Germany’s historical circumstances, with the specter of its Nazi history still resonating profoundly within the nation’s collective memory.
The AfD, despite being labeled as an extremist faction by numerous political adversaries, has already significantly shaped the broader national discussion on immigration in the run-up to this election. Their strong polling numbers mark an increase in party support since the most recent federal election in 2021. This political accomplishment is largely based on the party’s strict position against immigration, which seems to resonate with a considerable number of German citizens.
Under the influence of AfD’s rhetoric, other significant political groups, such as the centre-right CDU under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, and the centre-left SPD, currently led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have also found themselves shifting their stance on immigration, skewing more towards the right. These adjustments made by major parties present clear indications of a changing political discourse on immigration within Germany.
The AfD, first established in 2013 by a cadre of economics professors, initially maintained a relatively moderate posture. However, the party significantly altered its direction during the refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016, pivoting towards a more hardline stance against immigration. Germany, at that time, was being led by Chancellor Angela Merkel, and was accommodating more than a million refugees primarily from the Middle East and Afghanistan.
In the context of the current turbulent political environment, the AfD has been advocating for stricter border controls and the so-called ‘remigration’ – a term the party uses to refer to the mass deportation of irregular immigrants. Such proposed policies stir up controversy, yet they are a central part of the party’s platform.
Aside from immigration-related matters, the AfD firmly opposes military aid for Ukraine while advocating to dismiss the imposed sanctions on Russia. Furthermore, the party expresses a strong skepticism towards Germany’s membership in the European Union (EU), proposing a public vote to follow the UK’s ‘Brexit’ path. These stances still encapsulate the party’s original policy goal of ditching the single currency.
During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the party has taken a stance against imposing lockdown restrictions, asserting such measures infringe upon individuals’ freedom. This posture, paired with resistance to aiding Ukraine, has seemingly enlarged the AfD’s support base.
Historically, AfD’s supporters have largely been located in the eastern part of Germany – an area where voters appear to be the most impacted by the struggles of the domestic economy. However, with the upcoming Sunday election representing a key juncture for the party, it may augment its influence within the nation’s defense policy.
The AfD structure includes a fraction of extreme members, such as Björn Höcke who heads the party in Thuringia. He has previously been convicted and fined by the court for using a Nazi-associated slogan during a speech in 2021.
German authorities, specifically the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), have classified the AfD as potentially extreme since 2021. The party has argued that the designation from the BfV is an attempt to exclude it from the political process.
Earlier in 2024, the AfD made headlines when reports surfaced that its politicians had met to consider the possibility of mass deportation of non-German ethnicity residents. This news was met with widespread condemnation, engendering significant protests against the AfD and far-right nationalism across the country.
Yet, as per current indications, these controversies have seemingly failed to curtail the party’s momentum in the ongoing campaign. The recent spate of attacks carried out by immigrants, including two fatal car ramming incidents, appears to have reinvigorated the debate over immigration, thereby potentially playing into AfD’s narrative.
However, the general sentiment among German voters is one of strong disdain and concern towards the AfD securing power. Individuals have expressed fears about the party itself, as opposed to worrying about specific policy issues.
Despite the adverse feelings towards it, the AfD is projected to retain a strong presence in the Bundestag following the upcoming election. Although unlikely to form part of the ruling coalition, it will continue exerting considerable influence on the immigration policy approach of mainstream parties.