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President Biden has seen his popularity waver significantly among America’s young female public, a group that generally leans heavily towards the Democratic party. The shift was noticeable in a poll conducted on Tuesday which revealed his plummeting support rating since the summer.
A hypothetical round two of the 2024 presidential race between Biden and ex-President Donald Trump suggested that Biden’s popularity among 18 to 29-year-old women had slipped from 60% to a mere 42% since June. This puts Biden a mere 10 points ahead of Trump, a stark contrast with the 27-point lead he held previously.
In addition to the sharp drop among the younger women demographic, Biden’s overall appeal among the female electorate at large has taken a hit since summer. According to the same survey, which has shown his approval rate dipping consistently against Trump’s, his leadership margin stands at 47% versus Trump’s 41%. The survey also drew attention to Biden’s shrinking lead amongst the overall 18-to-29 demographic, with Trump trailing by a much slimmer margin of just 2 points.
Comparison data from the 2020 election shows a noticeable variation. Biden, during his face-off with Trump last time around, had a comfortable 15-point lead among female voters and a whopping 24-point margin among those aged between 18 and 29, as per Edison Research’s exit polls. This downward trend in the suport for current leader aligns with other polling data that indicate Biden’s waning popularity among some of the major demographic groups that played a significant role in his victory in 2020.
An intriguing element to note is Trump’s rising appeal for a potential re-election bid in 2024. In a similar survey conducted by J.L. Partners and Daily Mail, Trump, in fact, is leading Biden by 3 points. This is a significant shift from June’s poll which placed Biden ahead by 2 points.
In another shift, the presence of third-party candidates on the ballot influenced the numbers ever so slightly in favor of Trump. Voters who expressed their support for independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West accounted for 4% and 1% respectively. This saw Trump’s lead inch further ahead against Biden by 1 point.
A wave of recent surveys conducted both nationally and in key battleground states solidify the narrative of Biden trailing Trump. The most recent average from the nationally recognized RealClearPolitics (RCP) platform shows the current president lagging behind his predecessor by 2.3 points.
The battle for supremacy extends beyond the national landscape and into the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. As per the current data, Trump is leading in all five of these critical states.
Despite the emerging contest between the two, Biden and Trump hold firm and steady leads within their own party primaries. The RealClearPolitics average indicates strong support levels for both – 68% backing Biden within the Democrats and 63% backing Trump within the Republicans.
Such major trends have been meticulously drawn from the J.L. Partners/Daily Mail survey that involved interviewing 984 likely general election voters from across the country. This survey was conducted over a period of five days, from December 15th to December 20th.
It is equally important to account for the margin of error in the poll. This specific survey carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, which is a standard rate for such political polls and should always be considered while analysing the results.
The decrease in President Biden’s popularity, especially among the younger female voting public which traditionally leans towards Democratic lines, should indeed be a focal point for his administration. For a president who took office on a wave of female and young voter support, the eroding faith and support within this demographic certainly demand attention.
An equally interesting takeaway from the survey is the consistency in President Trump’s support, even after leaving office. His growing popularity and potential lead in the event of a 2024 rematch should give the Republicans ample reason for optimism.
The continuous monitoring and analysis of these polls provide valuable insight into potential electoral outcomes. While the next presidential election may seem far away, these early indications give political strategists and leaders crucial information they can utilize to adapt their platforms and outreach methods.
