This weekend at UFC 309, a significant middleweight clash is ready to unfold at the historic arena, Madison Square Garden. The spotlight shines on undefeated Bo Nickal who is taking on Paul Craig. The betting market is buzzing as we dissect the details of this 3-round face-off, along with predictions from industry experts. The records as they stand today highlight Nickal with an impressive 6-0-0 and Craig at 17-8-1.
Nickal, with 3 victories in his UFC journey so far, has cleanly finished all of his bouts. Making his initial mark at UFC 285, he demonstrated immense prowess by securing a first-round submission against Jamie Pickett. Later, in a striking 38 seconds, Nickal achieved a KO/TKO win against Val Woodburn at UFC 290.
In his most recent bout at UFC 300, we saw a more patient yet relentless Nickal. Up against Cody Brundage, he scored a submission win, but not until Round 2. Despite this being his second submission victory in three UFC fights, the combat sports world began to notice his evocative fighting style.
On the opposing corner, Paul Craig experienced a brutal loss at UFC 301 against Caio Borralho. Succumbing to a KO/TKO loss in just two rounds, Craig’s recent record doesn’t bode well, with one victory and four losses in his last five bouts.
Craig’s solitary victory, however, cannot be easily dismissed. On July 22, 2023, he secured a memorable KO/TKO win over Andre Muniz. Persevering through challenging bouts, he’s experienced two knockouts in his last five fights, with one loss via submission and another by unanimous decision.
Equally interesting is the physical template of both competitors. Sharing the same reach length at 76 inches, this matchup emphasizes the importance of technique more than raw physical advantage. Nevertheless, the left-handed Nickal possesses a significant strike record.
Even though he lands a mere 1.64 significant strikes per minute, Nickal’s accuracy is formidable at 72.94%. The elite fighter has also demonstrated an impressive 7.46 average in both takedowns and submissions. His efficient and technical fighting style forms the backbone of his continuing success.
Nickal, in the eyes of the betting experts, seems to be a sure victor; his odds requiring 14 times the return. Yet, seasoned punters do exercise caution with such heavily favored picks – a large bet with a small return is often deemed not to be valuable enough.
Adding complexity to the betting structure, a well-considered 4-leg Same Game Parlay could provide better odds for betters. Considerations for this parlay might include a Nickal victory via submission (Method of Victory) at (+200), Most significant strikes by Nickal (-235), and fighting round Under: 1.5 total (-180). There’s also the question of whether the match will go the full distance.
A simple $10 allocation towards this parlay proposition could yield a profit of $44.40, with a total payout of $54.40. Nonetheless, the betting market is volatile, and it’s important to assess all available options before placing a bet.
For those who wish to keep things straightforward, or may harbor concerns about potential knockouts, another popular bet would be UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS, priced at (-180). This focuses on the duration of the fight, rather than its outcome, and seems to be the safest option given the fighters’ historical records.
A cautious stance towards ‘will the fight go the distance?’ is also prevalent, with odds indicated at (-1100). Given the risky nature of this bet, it’s recommended to be wary as it would requisite placing 11 times the bet for an equivalent return.