The European continent is experiencing its gravest conflict since the tragedies of World War II. As Monday approaches, marking the third year since Russia’s all-out incursion into Ukraine, the contours of a possible turning point are emerging. The pinnacle of these developments is envisioned to be a direct meeting between the erstwhile American President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. As the Trump administration pushes fervently for a swift resolution, Russia’s deputy foreign minister has yet to commit to a date.
Although the drama between the White House and Ukraine became a public spectacle recently, the establishment in Washington is preserving a facade of hopefulness. As a result, the nascent negotiations hold promise to disrupt the prevailing deadlock. In the territorial divide, it is undeniable the Russian bear has displaced Ukraine to control nearly one fifth of its land, confining Ukraine to some small Russian territories only.
The impact has been felt in the loss of human lives. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has claimed that over 46,000 of his country’s soldiers have fallen in the response to Russia’s invasion, not to mention the tens of thousands of civilians bearing the brunt of this war in occupied regions. While Russian military has reported over 6,000 casualties as of January 2023, however the actual number is deemed to be significantly higher.
This military aggression hasn’t only exacted a crippling human cost but it has necessitated an enormous financial response as well. The US Congress has been compelled to allocate nearly $174.2 billion from FY2022 through FY2024 for aid to Ukraine, in response to Russia’s hostile exploits. Notably, this decision received cross-party endorsement even amidst the ever-increasing partisan divide.
The fervor to back Ukraine was encapsulated within a final address at the United Nations General Assembly last September. The sentiment, ‘We cannot grow weary. We cannot look away and we will not let up on our support for Ukraine,’ was echoed with passion. It seems clear that Zelenskyy, who governs more like a dictator with no elections on the horizon, will need to act decisively to safeguard what’s left of his country.
Former President Trump came under fire when he wrongly insinuated that Ukraine was the instigator of the war. In the face of widespread outcry, he rescinded his claim. Regardless, he did admit that Russia initiated the conflict but was quick to shift the blame to previous administrations for not being more proactive in their engagements with Putin.
Last week, a significant pivot in diplomacy occurred as Trump’s administration held separate meetings with the conflicting sides bringing an end to the longstanding isolation approach towards Russia. The Vice President pontificated, ‘How are you going to end the war unless you’re talking to Russia? You’ve got to talk to everybody involved in the fighting.’
Moreover, European leaders have been conspicuously absent from these direct conversations with Russia. This blatant exclusion has raised eyebrows, especially as conceding to Moscow’s demands could send a clear sign of weakness. This delicate situation presents a real dilemma as to how talks should be handled.
The transatlantic unity is under strain, with a fissure developing between the United States and its European allies. This divide is conspicuously shown in the differing resolutions being considered by the U.N. General Assembly. The American draft, with its soft tone, falls considerably short of the stern demand for an immediate recall of Russian forces from Ukraine as proposed by the Europeans.
As Monday looms, the world awaits a vote on these non-binding drafts. The outcome of this exercise in diplomacy will be revealing. It will serve as a litmus test of the perceived standing of the United States versus Europe in global politics, especially with regards to this protracted conflict.