In the heart of Donald Trump’s campaign lies a conundrum that could undermine a potential future presidency from its inception. The differing expectations of those advocating for Trump’s presidency present political risks for Trump, complicating any predictions of a potential second term’s trajectory. His second term could swing to the extremes, alarming many, or lean towards moderate, with the deciding elements being Trump’s personal interests and grievances. It’s a valid concern when Trump’s emotional state becomes the policy compass, as it could lead to alarming outcomes.
It’s clear now that Trump’s ardent supporters have veered sharply, convinced that the nation is teetering on the brink, in dire need of a radical transformation. More alarming, they feel personally targeted by a perceived monolithic entity that allegedly dismisses them and their values. They desire a disruptive overhaul, condoning violence if necessary. Evidence of this can be found in the Heritage Foundation, a formidable right-wing entity with significant influence, and in statements made on “War Room”, an influential podcast hosted by former Trump advisor, Stephen K. Bannon.
Bannon did not manage the interview but had reported himself to prison a day previous to serve a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress. His departure was marked by a sensationalist press conference featuring notable figures associated with the MAGA movement. However, here lies the crux of the issue: if Trump achieves victory again, it will not be on the back of these MAGA revolutionaries, but rather due to voters desiring precisely the opposite: tranquility.
Millions of Trump supporters are in search of a less tumultuous world. They want daily necessities like milk, eggs, and gasoline to become more affordable. Some may question their selective memory of the Trump era. How do they discount Trump’s Covid response, especially its initial stages marked by evasion and minimization of the virus’s threat? There is also the matter of the alarming increase in the murder rate during the final year of his presidency.
Similarly, the rug has been pulled over his attempt to discredit an American election, an endeavor that reached its pinnacle with the violent incident at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Both the MAGA radicals and those yearning for the past share distress regarding the nation’s state, immigration being a focal point; however, their viewpoints diverge substantially on the crisis’s depth and necessary solutions.
It’s quite straightforward to comprehend the grievances of the nostalgia voters. They are still reeling from inflation’s sting, are anxious about crime rates, want border control reestablished, and are anxious about escalating global conflicts. If the nostalgia voters were to commandeer the Trump contingent, one might anticipate a fairly typical second term by Trump’s standards.
Yes, Trump’s outbursts and online tirades would persist, but his policies may not prove too radical. In fact, many severe domestic issues are showing improvement. Inflation has seen a downward trend, and violent crimes have significantly reduced. Decisions by President Biden to tighten border controls have led to a decrease in illegal immigration.
Adapting American foreign policy or battling inflation and crime need not require a complete upheaval. The prevailing factor if Trump ascends to power again will not be the MAGA radicals. Instead, it would be because of the many supporters seeking stability, normalcy, and affordable living.
In the face of such wishes, predicting the actions of Trump, known for being irritable and rash, becomes complex. His public proclamations are often filled with threats of extreme measures, vows of retribution against opponents, and baseless allegations about adversaries. However, from a political standpoint, his interests supersede ideology. He won’t hesitate to abandon any individual or movement he perceives to be jeopardizing his authority.
The implications of this stance are already visible, with social conservatives bearing the brunt. Notably, Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s comprehensive policy proposal for a second Trump term. Furthermore, the Republican Party’s stance on abortion is the weakest it’s been in over four decades, with the party favoring state-based decisions.
I’ve yet to witness a presidential candidate enter a race with such a faction-split following. The same week that prominent Christian Trump backers, like Josh Hawley and Southern Baptist Theological Seminary’s Albert Mohler, were endorsing Christian nationalism, the Republican National Committee invited Amber Rose, author of ‘How to Be a Bad Bitch,’ to address the Republican National Convention.
Observers could spot the bifurcation within the Republican arena during the convention. Early evening speeches catered to Trump’s base, with drama being added by Peter Navarro’s address, fresh from a contempt of Congress sentence. As the night progressed, Republicans shifted towards nostalgia, evoking memories of pre-Covid times when employment and inflation were low, and crime seemed more manageable.
We remain uncertain about which Republican group will gain the upper hand if Trump wins his second term. Will it be as agitated and radical as we dread? Or will it be guided by the understanding that most Americans crave stability? Nostalgic voters may dislike lax border control but would undoubtedly recoil from the palpable anguish that a mass detention and deportation regime would trigger. However, one certain aspect in a probable second Trump term is Trump himself. He seems to have grown more irate and unpredictable since 2016. His prioritization of personal whims over the needs of his supporters may steer us into the tumult that Steve Bannon yearns for.