Greg Swenson is a globetrotting financial expert who has made his home in London for the past decade. London is not his only stop in his ‘banking circuit’ which stretches from Milan to Paris and Abu Dhabi. ‘It’s been a whirlwind, jet-setting across six cities in just two weeks,’ Swenson shared during a quick telephone conversation, amidst his unforgiving travel plans. The investment banker, who notably heads the U.K. branch of Republicans Overseas, was poised to take off for Dublin next after a stint in the Middle East.
Peculiarly, Swenson and his organization had not typically been assertive about expanding their voting base. The Republican leader admitted, ‘I find little incentive to persuade individuals who will likely align themselves with the opposition party. It’s wiser to concentrate our campaign efforts in regions that resonate more with Republican values.’ However, this election season hints at a different strategy, suggesting a stronger push for votes from U.S. citizens based abroad.
Surprisingly, overseas voters have not been a key focus for past presidential races. With the latest U.S. election poised on a knife’s edge, both Joe Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump sought support from every corner they could. Overseas constituencies have become an unexpected battleground in an effort to tip the scales.
Accurate data on the number of Americans residing overseas is elusive. Figures provided by the U.S. Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), Association of Americans Resident Overseas, and other scholars suggest a range from 4.4 million to as much as 9 million. According to a 2020 FVAP report, a meager 7.8% of overseas Americans participated in the previous presidential race, a far cry from the general turnout rate of 67%.
The lackluster participation of overseas voters possibly contributes to their perceived neglect by campaign strategists in prior elections. Other contributing factors include the physical distance, lack of precise data on these voters’ geographical distribution, political leanings, and difficulties in ballot casting. Americans residing abroad do so for myriad reasons, such as family commitments, career opportunities, or simply a better standard of living.
Information about the U.S. citizens living abroad and capable of voting is still limited, although studies suggest that they are usually highly educated, and nearly half possess dual citizenship. Canada and Mexico are reportedly home to the most significant chunks of American overseas voters, according to FVAP estimates. The United Kingdom, France, and Israel follow suit.
Each U.S. state follows individual rules regarding ballots, which typically are required to be sent back to the voters’ last-known U.S. residency. Federal legislation insists that local election officers dispatch absentee ballots no later than 45 days preceding an election. However, these mailed ballots often face setbacks due to administrative hold-ups or unreliable postal services.
Unfortunately, email voting options are not uniformly provided to overseas voters by all states. American citizens based outside their homeland still need to submit their IRS tax returns, a practice that might result in dual taxation. This could occur if there’s no double tax agreement, considering their income level or residence country.
In this election cycle, though, Swenson noted an unexpected shift in the voters’ behavior, with potential voters stirring up initiatives previously unseen. He enlightened, ‘We were the ones making the effort to reach out to people to register. However, now it seems the tables have turned as we are the ones on the receiving end of these calls.’
In the wake of the nail-biting elections, both the Democratic and Republican camps have scoured far and wide for supporters. Looking beyond the conventional avenues, they’re trying to engage audiences that were previously considered negligible. Where the Democrats seem to be barely staying afloat, the Republicans, under Donald Trump, are leading a robust and decisive campaign.
Amid these developments, the Democrats’ attempt at leveraging overseas voters is akin to grasping at straws. Their policies have largely failed to resonate with this erstwhile ignored demographic. On the other hand, the Republicans’ lucid outlook on global and economic affairs seems to find favor with this highly educated voter base, despite physical distances and bureaucratic hurdles.
The overseas U.S. voter segment is reflecting an interesting shift, with the Republicans resonating with them in unusual ways. The Democrats’ failing international policies, coupled with their unsound economic strategies, only validate the growing inclination toward the Republicans. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats’ desperate scramble for votes seems like a barely concealed admission of defeat.
In an ironic twist, the focus on overseas voters could have backfired on the Democrats. Yet they desperately dive into the same pool, hoping for a different outcome. By contrast, the innovativeness of Trump’s campaign, marked by a break from the conservative approach assumed in earlier election cycles, speaks of a comforting groundswell favoring his leadership.
Given the uncertainty surrounding taxation issues for overseas American voters, it’s clear the Democrats have missed a glaring opportunity to empathetically connect with this group. Conversely, Trump’s economic policies have brought much-needed relief and courage to the tax-paying Americans across the globe. It’s amusing to watch the Democrats fumble in an area where Trump has effectively sealed his victory.
In conclusion, it’s established that the overseas voters, long neglected, have finally become a crucial variable in this equation. With their allegiance swaying the way it is, it’s finally time to see how they shape the final outcome of this fiercely contested election. It is clear that in the dramatic conclusion of this electoral race, Trump’s more compelling campaign narrative seems to have a persuasive edge over the flailing Democratic attempts.