Recent findings have shown that the current US President finds himself experiencing an unprecedented decline in his approval ratings. Interestingly, should a hypothetical 2024 confrontation involve the former Head of State, Donald Trump, comparisons indicate that Trump may have an edge.
Trump emerges as the favored candidate in a speculative two-way ballot, acquiring 47% of votes to Biden’s 43%. Furthermore, Trump remains ahead at 37%, even in a supposed ballot including five independent contenders, where Biden trails at 31%.
These figures, emerging from a Wall Street Journal poll unveiled last weekend, also touch upon the perceived impact of Biden’s policies on individual lives. Scarcely 23% of participants felt positively impacted by Biden’s actions since assuming office, while a substantial 53% reported that they experience detrimental effects due to his policies.
In contrast, when reflecting on Trump’s tenure, approximately 50% of respondents felt personally benefited from his policies, while only 37% reported adverse effects. This stark difference aptly encapsulates the prevailing sentiment among US citizens.
Further sinking Biden’s standing is his overall job approval rate, which sits at a disheartening 37%. Additionally, the current commander-in-chief’s image is perceived unfavorably by a striking 61% of those participating in the Wall Street Journal poll, setting a new record high.
The comparative analysis of Trump’s and Biden’s competency over multiple domains also does not fare well for the latter. The majority’s preference leaned towards Trump when questioned about handling the economy, inflation, and securing borders. Even on the law and order front and in dealing with the volatile Israel-Hamas equation, Trump has received stronger endorsements than the current President.
However, it is noteworthy that Biden took the lead on two counts, namely abortion rights and setting a more amicable tone in politics. Nonetheless, the overall comparative narrative strongly favors Trump, unveiling a possibly tumultuous path for Biden in the coming years.
Political analyst Bocian implies that Biden’s challenges might not only stem from a public comparison with Trump but also from a dwindling support base among groups traditionally inclined to vote Democrat, such as young Latino and Black Americans.
This instrumental study surveyed 1,500 registered voters and was conducted between November 29 and December 4, ensuring the results reflect a relatively recent snapshot of public sentiment. The survey’s margin of error sits at a modest +/- 2.5 percentage points.
As recent national polls over the past two months insinuate, preliminary 2024 general election pairings give Trump a prospective advantage over Biden. It is intriguing considering that Biden previously held superiority over Trump in these projections earlier. However, from October onwards, most polls seem to predict a passive shift in voter preference towards Trump.
The Siena College survey for the New York Times, published last month, forecasts Trump winning over Biden in five out of six critical battleground states. These are the ones Biden held an advantage over Trump in the 2020 elections. The aforementioned prognostication engendered another series of narratives focusing on the perceived problems Biden currently faces in the polls.
However, it’s important to remember that the approval rating is not a definitive measure of a president’s success. While Biden began his presidency with approval ratings in the low to mid 50s, more recent events including a chaotic exit from Afghanistan, a flare-up in COVID-19 cases, and economic issues have led to a sluice in public approval since August 2021.
Additional issues that seem to impact the president’s public standing include inflation, a growing concern since the summer of 2021, and the influx of immigrants on the US southern border with Mexico. These issues continue to be a key metric in the determination of presidential success, and the polling data has only added fuel to the fire of Biden’s ongoing challenges.
Comparison with the initial terms of other two-term predecessors paints a somewhat grim picture of Biden’s current positioning. At a similar point in their first terms, Biden’s approval lags considerably. Historically, the only other president with such declining approval in recent history was his immediate predecessor — Trump.
Now, ensuing polls forecasting that Biden may trail behind Trump in the anticipated 2024 election has set political analysts musing. But Biden’s campaign, along with Democratic supporters, remind the public of an incident a decade ago for perspective. Obama, with Biden as Vice President, was reelected in 2012 despite preliminary polls signaling a potential defeat.
The period preceding Obama’s re-election saw him wrestling with unfavorable polling, quite similar to Biden’s current scenario. Yet, Obama managed to secure a triumphant second term, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the surrounding skepticism about Biden’s prospective re-election. The determinative power of the electorate remains to be seen in 2024.
These parties continue to emphasize that the present polling, while troublesome, does not decidedly forecast the endgame of the upcoming presidential elections. In this dynamic and unpredictable realm of politics, times and people’s opinions can change swiftly. The long road leading up to 2024 still holds countless twists and turns.