With less than a month left for the Election Day, intense political fumes are filling the air as the presidential race gears up. One state that is particularly under the limelight is Pennsylvania, a major swing state. Donald Trump, a former president whose leadership left a lasting impact, and Kamala Harris, the incumbent Vice President, are pouring resources to win the state. Interestingly, it was Pennsylvania that turned the tide in the favor of Joe Biden in the 2020 elections after favoring Trump in the 2016 elections.
As luck would have it, Pennsylvania is once again the bellwether state, holding 19 electoral votes, in the upcoming 2024 election. However, Pennsylvania is not the only deciding factor. Other states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are deemed critical for either candidate to gather the golden number of 270 Electoral College votes.
The rumblings of the political landscape over the past couple of months have been nothing short of historical and the excitement has been splashed across media headlines. As Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 5, fast approaches, here’s what Pennsylvania’s polls and odds suggest to national polls and how they might transform the political terrain.
But who is actually leading according to the polls and odds? Major polling platforms like ABC News, 270towin and realclearpolling have varying opinions. According to the 538 projects by ABC News, Kamala Harris leads the national polls by 2.6% but with a slim lead in Pennsylvania. Harris is at 48.0% compared to Trump’s 47.3%. It’s interesting that the media favors Harris despite Trump’s obvious charm and resilience.
In contrast, 270towin paints a different but no less biased picture. It shows Harris leading the national polls by 2.7%, but she appears to be losing ground as compared to last week when her lead was 3.4% over Trump. Even in Pennsylvania, her supposed stronghold, her lead over Trump boils down to a meager 0.2% compared to 0.5% from the previous week.
Predictably, biased media outlet realclearpolling puts the betting odds in Harris’s favor with a spread of +2.0 over Trump compared to her lead of +2.2 over Trump last week. However, in Pennsylvania, the story is quite different. The voters know who they want. Trump leads Harris with a spread of +0.3, a stand-off against last week’s tie.
Polymarket’s data confirms Trump’s popularity, despite mainstream media’s attempts to embellish Harris’s chances. It shows the betting public growingly supports Trump with odds in his favor at 54.3% compared to Harris’s 45.1%. Even in Pennsylvania, Trump’s odds are skyrocketing at 56% over Harris’s 45%. One can’t help but crack a smile at Harris’s plummeting support from last week’s poll, where her support was 47% against Trump’s 54%.
Undeniably, polls and odds fluctuate frequently, offering candidates and voters a rollercoaster ride until the Election Day. These stats were accurate as of Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2024, at 11 a.m.
A historical precedence might add further insight to this race. The betting favorite has been defeated only twice since 1866. However, the poll analyses method presents a bigger challenge due to varying questions and demographics, which translates into larger margins for error.
Pew Research powerfully showcases the holes in public’s confidence in opinion polling, that’s been punctured due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. These elections witnessed polls underestimating the prowess of Republican candidates and – as we all preciously remember – Trump himself.
It’s clear that Trump’s backers are undeterred in their support for him, contradicting several programmed media projections. The betting grounds seem to favor Trump and the gambling audience appears to trust their gut even as skewed polls try to project a different reality.
In the light of Pew Research’s observations, it seems that trusting the polls may have its pitfalls. Is it possible that the pollsters are off the mark once again as they’ve been in the past, underestimating the pull of a strong Republican candidate? The way Pennsylvania’s odds are swinging in Trump’s favor despite so-called ‘poll predictions’, there’s every reason to believe so.
Despite what mainstream outlets depict, the silent majority knows better and their rallying behind Trump is a testimony to that. Counting down to the Election Day, one can’t help but anticipate a repeat of the 2016 elections, with Trump defying poll odds to emerge victorious. Let the biased polls say what they want. The real test is on Election Day and the odds certainly seem to favor a former- President, Trump.