The wheels of change appear to be moving quickly. Even before officially assuming the role as the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump seems to already be impacting the critical issue of illegal immigration. He recently shared on Truth Social that he had an impactful dialogue with Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, the new Mexican President, just the day prior to Thanksgiving.
According to his post, the outcome of this discussion led to an agreement by Sheinbaum Pardo to halt migration through Mexico, thereby considerably lessening the pressure on the southern border of the United States. The pair also delved into possible solutions for mitigating the large-scale influx of drugs into U.S. territory and curbing U.S. consumption.
This dialogue could be viewed as a positive step towards urging Mexico to act proactively to slow down rampant migration at its roots. But not soon after, reports seem to suggest that President Sheinbaum may have tried to downplay their conversation or the media could be misconstruing her statements, as per Forbes.
The president-elect, in his writings, mentioned an additional agenda discussed with Sheinbaum: further actions to curb the overwhelming drug flow into the United States. This discussion was prompted by Trump’s accusations earlier in the week, stating Mexico’s involvement in facilitating the drug trade. As part of this conversation, Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all Mexican imports.
Subsequent to their conversation, Sheinbaum released a statement, referring to her discussion with Trump as ‘excellent’. She briefed him about Mexico’s approach to dealing with migration and stated that there won’t be any migrant caravans reaching the U.S border because Mexico will handle them.
Following Trump’s Truth Social posts, Sheinbaum took to Twitter to clarify her stance on their conversation. She confirmed having shared Mexico’s holistic strategy for managing the migration issue, guided by a respect for human rights.
Despite these affirmations, there was a seeming contradiction in the media portrayal of Mexico’s commitment to tackle the migration issue. The media suggested that Mexico was not in agreement to intensify its efforts to halt northern migration beyond what was already being done. But Sheinbaum had indeed said Mexico would handle the caravans, preventing them from getting to the southern U.S. boundary.
Trump’s tariff warning was principally aimed at eliciting greater cooperation from countries to the north and south of the United States. It highlighted the need for these countries, especially Canada and Mexico, to assume responsibility for their immigration matters, with the U.S. not being obligated to accept a growing number of illegal migrants.
The truth is, tariffs are not a permanent fixture of Trump’s international policy. They merely serve as negotiation tools. His belief is in promoting trade that is open and equitable for all parties involved. Prior to the Biden administration, Mexico had been actively cooperating on immigration issues.
By potently threatening to impose tariffs and displaying readiness to enforce them if necessary, Trump’s plan is grounded in simplicity. The overwhelming majority of Mexican exports are heavily reliant on the United States, which provides an advantageous position in Trump’s strategic approach.
Trump’s tariff strategy can be broken down into three key phases: Firstly, he threatens devastating 25% tariffs that have the potential to wreak havoc on Mexico’s economy. Secondly, there is retaliation from the Mexican president. Finally, the Mexican President realizes that a large chunk of her country’s economy (30%) is dependent on exports to the United States, with only a minuscule 2% of U.S. economy reliant on exports to Mexico. Understanding this imbalance, the Mexican President usually capitulates within a couple of days.
This time, with previous negotiations under his belt, Trump is better prepared on how to use diplomatic pressures and economic incentives to motivate different countries into taking action. As such, his approach stands a better chance of influencing Mexico’s immigration policy and ultimately reducing the strain on the American southern border.
In conclusion, while it is still early days, the signs hint at promising outcomes from Trump’s proactive dialogues with foreign leaders. The president-elect’s strategic approach, combined with his nuanced understanding of international diplomacy, has the potential to effect change on a grand scale. Only time will tell if these negotiations will result in a drastic dent in the issues of illegal migration and drug trafficking into the U.S. from its southern neighbor.