An in-depth poll of voters centered around the critical locales in Pennsylvania, often seen as the barometer for political leaning, discloses a thin superiority for ex-President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. Specifically, Erie and Northampton counties, which reflect the broader sentiments of the state in national elections since 2008, are in focus. These counties elected Obama in 2008 and 2012, supported Trump in 2016, and swung towards Joe Biden in 2020.
Pennsylvania’s role as a pivotal battleground state in the 2024 election isn’t overlooked, as it appears most surveys suggest nearly balanced popularity for Trump and Harris. However, minute differences tip the scale towards Trump who narrowly leads by 49% against Harris’s 48%. A noteworthy shift compared to the 2020 election shows these vital counties of Pennsylvania nonchalantly aligning with Trump.
Insightfully, the former President has won over customary Democrat voters who now perceive Harris’s view as excessively progressive. This shift is more pronounced despite Democrats holding a 4% registration advantage in these counties and adds more credibility to the trend of lifelong Democrat supporters gradually abandoning the traditional party.
Looking at the nation as a whole, the primary concerns for such crucial voters gravitate around the economy and immigration issues. These indicators are near and dear to the hearts of these voters, with inflation and the economy dominating the concerns of 31%, and immigration and border security echoing as the most significant concern for 24% of those polled.
Comparing Trump and Harris’s stands on these matters provides an interesting look into the lead Trump has in these areas. On matters related to the economy, Trump holds a 6-point margin (52-46), while on immigration issues, his lead is more striking, with a 15-point difference. Pertaining to crime, Trump again nudges ahead by a 6% margin.
Nevertheless, Harris displays commendable prowess over the topic of abortion, owning a 14% advantage, though a mere fifth of the democratic bellwether voters align with her stance on unrestricted right up to the point of birth.
In furthering the comparison, an intriguing finding reveals that 50% of Pennsylvania’s group of likely voters approve of Trump’s time at the helm, whereas a lesser 39% endorse the Biden-Harris regime. Besides polling higher in the proposed face-off, Trump also impresses with a higher job satisfaction rate, more confidence on pressing issues, and a notable personal reputation.
The somewhat worrying facet for the Harris campaign is the unfavorable ratings, unveiled in the poll, for both her and the Democratic Party (-8 and -13, respectively). In contrast to this, Trump and the Republican party manage a slightly better rating, though still negative, at -4.
Remarkable, and likely not to be overlooked, is Trump’s grown influence among blue-collar voters. The poll data unveils the former president’s 16% lead among union households, with a 13% advantage among voters with an annual income below $100,000.
Harris, for her part, holds a noticeable lead of 27 points among the college-educated voters. However, Trump pulls ahead with a 20-point lead among those without a college degree. Harris also does better with wealthier households — having a lead of 18 points among those earning beyond six figures, and with women under 55, a group she wins by 25 points.
The poll reveals a clear disparity not just on the educational and wealth grounds but also on the gender front. While Harris enjoys a 25% lead with women, Trump outperforms her by 29% among men.
The decision not to select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate might hurt Harris in this important state, as suggested by the recent polling numbers. Prior to selecting Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris had been weighing up Shapiro for the role, although his stance on Israel reportedly conflicted with the perspective of her party’s base.
However, holding considerable favor among the state’s critical voters, Shapiro boasts a plus-14-point favorability rating. On the other hand, Walz, the eventual pick for running mate, garners a considerably lesser plus-2 rating.
More importantly, if the survey’s stipulated hypothetical face-off were to occur, with Trump/Vance pitted against Harris/Shapiro, the Democratic pair would edge out their Republican rivals by a single percentage point (48-47).
In conclusion, the survey across pivotal counties of Pennsylvania paints an interesting picture of prospective sentiments for the 2024 elections. It notably highlights a marginal shift favoring Trump among traditional Democrat voters, while stressing the pressing issues of the economy and immigration for the bellwether voters.
While this scenario presents a complex puzzle for Harris to solve, the consistent political leaning swing in these counties amplifies the importance attached to their name of ‘bellwether’. As such, the strategies crafted and narratives spun by both parties will need to be carefully tailored to convince these key demographics.