One month past the day of ballot counting and the picture of how the Jewish community cast their votes is quite clear. Analyzing this data offers insights both for the Republican and Democratic camp. With Jewish community accounting for a modest two percent of U.S. citizens, their voting patterns are a hard riddle for the pollsters. Nevertheless, several post-election polls consistently suggest that a significant portion of Jewish voters, between 63% and 71%, backed Kamala Harris, however, Donald Trump managed to garner a larger percentage of the Jewish vote than he did back in 2020.
Historically, American Jews have mostly leaned towards the Democrats, with two-thirds or more of their votes typically going to the party’s presidential candidates for the past hundred years. However, on the advent of the 2024 election, there were murmurs within both political circles about the possibility of a more substantial shift of Jewish voters towards the Republicans. The most notable instance of such a considerable shift was in the election of 1980, where Ronald Reagan captivated approximately 40% of Jewish votes. A possible change in political allegiance seemed plausible, particularly due to the backlash from progressive groups following the Hamas attack on October 7.
Despite this negativity, the always-optimistic Trump was confident he would appeal to 40% of Jewish voters. On the other side of the coin, the Democrats held firm,attaching themselves to surveys suggesting their Jewish voter base remained strong. Yet as the voting day approached, doubts began to circulate over whether their traditional support base might be eroding.
Following Trump’s victorious campaign against Kamala Harris, multiple polls set out to quantify Jewish support. Despite the disparities among these surveys, they all narrate a consistent tale. According to newly released poll results, Harris received 71% of the Jewish vote to Trump’s 26%. However, a closer look at these numbers reveals that the Democrats, while still commanding a vast majority of Jewish votes, are seeing their advantage slightly deteriorate.
Further examination of the national shift indicates that the alteration in the electorate was predominantly due to Democrats losing ground rather than Trump gaining additional Republican votes. The poll conducted by GBAO Strategies revealed Harris came out on top in the Jewish vote against Trump, 71% to 26%, a margin of 45 points. When compared to the 2020 election, where Biden led Trump by 56 points (77% to 21%), it’s evident the Democratic margin has decreased by 11 points.
The Cooperative Election Study by Harvard University highlighted that in this election cycle, Harris led Trump by a 27-point spread (63% to 36%) among Jewish voters. In contrast, the university’s 2020 poll found a wider gap, with 39 points difference as Jewish voters favored Biden over Trump (69% to 30%). This again suggests a slight narrowing of the margin.
The Associated Press/Fox’s online polling, undertaken by the University of Chicago, discovered that Jewish voters supported Harris over Trump by 34 points (66% to 32%). However, the same pollsters in 2020 found a 39-point gap favoring Biden (69% to 30%) over Trump among Jewish voters. The poll also studied the Jewish population’s opinion of each candidate’s Israeli policies, which could be one factor accounting for Trump’s increased support.
From the Jewish voters surveyed, 48% believed that Trump would adopt a more pro-Israel stance than Biden, while a paltry 7% thought the same about Harris. Among Jewish Trump voters, 23% expressed high attachments to Israel compared to 9% of Harris’s supporters. However, Trump was ranked lower in other areas of priority to Jewish voters.
Harriswas identified as being closely aligned with pro-choice protections, safeguarding Social Security and Medicare, urgent climate change action, and protecting the democratic system. In terms of favorability among Jewish voters, Harris reaped 68% positive and 32% negative, while Trump’s results came out as 24% positive and 76% negative.
The study also explored the effect of synagogue attendance on voting preference. It found that 81% of Jews who do not attend services voted for Harris, and 61% of those attending frequently favored her. These statistics line up with real-world voting patterns seen in heavily Orthodox Jewish communities, which is quite different to the theoretical polling results.
For instance, Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods such as Crown Heights, Brooklyn and Teaneck, New Jersey, demonstrated a clear preference for Trump, providing further proof that polls do not always accurately predict real-world outcomes.
Overall, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election shows that, despite the constant chatter about shifting voting inclinations, the Jewish American community continues to lean heavily Democrat. However, the noticeably reduced margin, particularly in comparison with the 2020 election results, might be an indication for the Democrats that their days of taking the Jewish vote for granted could be numbered.
Democrats, considering these results, must take into account the increasing skepticism within the Jewish community, or they risk the chance of further erosion of support. The branching out of Jewish votes towards the Republicans, as was shown in this election, might not have shaken the foundation of the Democrats’ grip, yet it certainly seems to have jostled it.
Taking into account the duplicitous nature of politics, Republicans, and in particular Trump, can indeed celebrate the greater support garnered, considering historic trends. Noteworthy is the fact that Trump was trusted more on Israel policy, despite being rated lower in other critical policy areas. This indicates that foreign policy can be an influential factor for the Jewish voting block.
It is clear that Harris and the Democrats failed to cover their tracks when it came to Israel policy, which is a grave miscalculation considering how much of a priority it is for the Jewish bloc. Democrats need to focus on improving their track record on Israel if they wish to sustain their historically dominant position in the Jewish vote.
In conclusion, the 2024 elections offered some intriguing insights into the shifting tide of political preference within the Jewish community. While they still predominantly back the Democrats, it is an eroding dominance that could presage significant change and presents an opportunity for Republicans like Trump who are gaining ground.