Despite an erroneous public perception on his popularity among traditional Democrat-aligned voters, Donald Trump outperformed the predictions and made great strides in attracting Hispanic, Black, and metropolitan voters. This revelation underscores the dubious nature of pre-election polls. An interesting case in point is the local elections last week in Passaic County, N.J., a place where nearly half of the population identified as Hispanic in the recent 2020 census. Notwithstanding, the Democrats’ overall performance, Kamala Harris demonstrated a lackluster performance in stark contrast with her party’s success.
Placing this into perspective, Harris’ failure is even more apparent when you consider how historically Democratic contenders Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton whopped up support, leading the county by 17 and 23 points respectively. This stark drop in support contrasts sharply with Trump, who is currently leading the county by three points, a clear testament to his popularity and a rejection of Harris’ persuasion attempts.
Last week’s surprising electoral results demonstrate that Trump’s influence went far beyond swing states. His reach extended to traditionally Democratic rows such as urban Hispanic and Black voters, taking everyone by surprise. All these gains were consistent with the pre-election polls painting a close race additionally highlighting Trump’s successful reach to groups leaning overwhelmingly towards Democrats.
The available data from these demographic groups remains limited for now, casting a foggier picture of who exactly cast the votes for Trump. Hints lie in the county and precinct results, providing an incomplete, yet quite suggestive outline.
A month into Harris’ nomination as the Democratic candidate, two analysts delved into the poll data to discern her stance among Hispanic voters, a group notable for their drift away from Biden. Their findings revealed the truth riddled with irony- despite Hispanics forming a key democratic demographic, Harris failed to attract the support that Biden once enjoyed in 2020, and remained woefully behind the appeal Hillary Clinton held in 2016.
Further analysis on county and precinct data present numerous instances of the trend in favor of Trump. Strikingly, near the Texan-Mexican border, most Hispanic-dominant counties, like Starr County, a Democrat stronghold for last century, sided with Trump. Central Florida also evidenced a noteworthy rightward shift with Osceola County, originally a Biden and Clinton stronghold, swinging in favor of Trump.
Overall, Hispanic dominant counties registered a rightward shift towards Trump by 13 percentage points as compared to 2020, aptly validating Trump’s appeal among the Hispanic voters.
An analogous shift towards the right was observed among Black voters, although to a lesser degree. Illustratively, in North Carolina, Trump managed to tip Nash County in his favor, a county with a substantial Black population which narrowly favored Biden in 2020. Trump also fared better in Hertford and Northampton, two Black-majority counties in comparison to his past performance.
Similarly, in Georgia, Trump managed to attract more black voters than in 2020. He not only improved his standings in counties with Black-majority populations but also flipped certain such counties, including Baldwin County and Pasquotank County. An analysis of national data reveals that, on average, Black-majority counties shifted more than two points to the right.
These shifts among Hispanic and Black voters are not baseless conjecture, but were predicted fairly accurately in pre-election polls. The perceived hesitancy from experts to take these subgroup breakdowns seriously comes from the potential margin of error due to smaller sample sizes. However, collectively viewed, these shifts in favor of Trump became undeniable.
Perhaps a valuable indicator lies in two different polls. One had Harris ahead with 78 percent among Black likely voters, and 56-37 among Hispanic likely voters. Yet, the numbers underline a dramatic decrease in support compared to Biden and Clinton’s past performance.
Another noteworthy drop in support for Harris was visible in other polls taken right before election. These polls indicated as low as 71 percent support from Black voters and an abysmal 38 percent support among Hispanic voters. Even without complete data from this election, the available information suggests a genuine shift away from Harris.
A similar pattern of Trump making inroads in traditionally democratic bastions was seen in large cities. Trump secured much more votes in New York City this year than he did in 2020, a fact which helped him to shave off the Democrats’ victory margin. Contrastingly, Harris merely managed to claim victory by 37 points – paling in comparison to Clinton’s near 63-point win and Biden’s 54-point lead.
In Chicago also, Trump found favor, nearly doubling his share of vote compared to 2016, while Trump in Florida accomplished the unthinkable by flipping Miami-Dade County, something not seen since George H.W. Bush’s win in 1988. Philadelphia, another city traditionally allied with Democrats, also saw a mild shift right, with Trump securing voters in certain parts.
The analysis showed urban counties shifting an average of 5.8 points to the right, indicating a wider acceptance for Trump in these areas. Although these cities were often overlooked in the polls due to not being in swing states, the few polls conducted did indicate these rightward shifts well.