Revisiting recent polling data from seven highly critical battleground states, it seems that Donald Trump could very well secure a win in the upcoming elections with a commendable 296 electoral votes. Between August 28-30, Trafalgar released a poll predicting Trump bagging 44 electoral votes, seizing victories in the significant Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These victories appear to be quite narrow, though enough to tip the scales within the limits of the polls’ margins of error.
Keeping a keen eye on the pivotal Blue Wall states, the Trafalgar survey once more anticipates Trump winning the 44 electoral votes coming November’s election. This seems to paint a rather grim picture for the Democrats, especially considering the somewhat close victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In a parallel development, between August 29-31, Insider Advantage conducted polling across four additional battleground states. These included, in particular, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, all projected to fall in Trump’s favor. Although these predictions may appear demanding, it is imperative to remember that the conclusion remains statistically undetermined, thereby making the situation susceptible to fluctuations.
Despite what the statistics may suggest, a shift from recent surveys has become increasingly evident, where Vice President Kamala Harris has purportedly been making gains in the election-defining states. With such a precarious situation, any assumptions regarding the final outcomes remain speculations at best.
In a hopeful turn of events for the former president, Trafalgar’s data from Michigan, fondly known as the Wolverine State, projects a narrow victory for Trump, edging past Harris with 47% to her 46.6%. Nevertheless, the promise for the Democrats in Pennsylvania seems to be dwindling, with Trump holding a more decisive lead of 47% to 45%.
Contrary to popular belief, a 2% lead might not translate to a major win. However, compared to Trump’s modest 0.72% victory in Pennsylvania eight years ago, it certainly demonstrates an interesting development. Yet, the RealClearPolitics polling average currently indicates a lean towards Harris — not Trump — in these states. In particular, Michigan has supposedly skewed in favor of the Vice President since August 29.
Lying somewhere in between the two extremes, Wisconsin anticipated a slightly stronger performance for Trump over Harris, 47% to 46%. This seems like a close match when considered against Trump’s 0.77% win in the state in 2016 and a 0.63% loss in 2020. Though it does raise questions on the accuracy of the current polling given that the RealClearPolitics polling average yet again leans in favor of Harris.
Looking westwards, Arizona’s race for 11 electoral votes projects a 49%-to-48% victory for Trump, marking a tighter margin when compared to Biden’s 0.3% victory four years prior. This could potentially trigger an automatic recount in the state, further prolonging the confirmation of a winner.
In a surprising but positive turn of events for Trump, independent voters come through for him in Arizona with a solid 12-point margin against Vice President Harris. A similar scenario is observed in Nevada, where Trump’s lead amongst independent voters carries him to a narrow 48%-to-47% lead. This could be a major breakthrough since Trump has previously lost the state in both 2016 and 2020 elections.
The poll results are somewhat inconclusive in North Carolina, with Trump leading by one percentage point, 49% to 48%, against Harris. This marginal lead appears less than the Trump’s victory margin for this state in 2020. However, it’s notable that Trump is leading despite Harris having more support among independent voters, 50% to 46%.
Beneath this narrow margin in North Carolina lies the potential prize of 16 electoral votes for Trump. If successful, this would be a considerable gain for him, particularly given his performance across previous elections.
However, despite the aggressive stance taken towards Biden and Harris, Georgia showcases an interesting deviation from the narrative. In the race for the state’s 16 electoral votes, Harris is projected to score a minor victory over Trump, with 48% against his 47.6%.
Interestingly, the independent voters in Georgia present nearly equal support for both Trump and Harris, with Harris ahead by only 0.1 percentage point. The margin between the two is seemingly the smallest possible, at 45.2% for Harris and 45.1% for Trump, but reminds us that in elections every vote matter, however slim the margin.
As with any political forecasting, the final result remains a thriller. Until the hustle and bustle of Election Day dies down, only then will the true victor emerge and it could potentially swing towards Trump or Harris depending on the waning support among independent voters. For now, gaze remains fixed on these critical battleground states.