One fine Tuesday afternoon, a prophetic projection came from a Virginia based market research firm. They declared, in no uncertain terms, that Donald Trump is poised for victory in the 2024 presidential race if undecided voters in the strategically important states of Pennsylvania, Iowa and Georgia continued to favor the right-leaning ideology. As if on cue, many other Americans decided to align with this perspective, breaking their pattern, regardless of their non-Republican registration.
Resonate, this prescient predictive intelligence company known for its consumer and voter insights, has the track record to back up its bold prediction, having successfully tipped the eventual winner for both the 2016 and 2020 elections, leveraging their razor-sharp, AI-driven predictive modeling systems. They expressed confidence that Trump could pull off a brilliant win albeit with a lean margin of as little as two electoral votes.
Interestingly, the 2024 prediction wasn’t unconventional like in 2016, and it contrasted heavily with exaggerated claims that abortion rights would significantly affect the national election in favor of the Democrats. In fact, recent poll numbers in battleground states showed Trump seizing a commanding lead. Even global betting markets echoed this sentiment and highlighted that Trump had a high likelihood of clinching the win.
The aptitude of the company became apparent through their accurate analysis in the months leading up to the election through five key observations.
Firstly, they noted a sense of unease among Americans about their financial futures. Despite some improvement in the extreme worries, a sizable two-thirds of Americans remained at least moderately concerned about their economic fate. Alarmingly, two out of every five Americans were just scraping by or facing financial difficulties.
Secondly, immigration retained its spot as a pivotal issue for Republicans. The addition of the previous vice-president into the race influenced undecided voters to lean toward Trump and Republicans on immigration policies. It seemed that the Democrats did little to counteract that lead among undecided voters in battleground states. Fascinatingly, of all voters who planned to back Trump in 2024, a massive 67% identified immigration as their primary concern.
In a surprising twist, the third key observation revealed an increased inclination of Latino voters towards Republican ideals. The data indicated that Latino voters, notably Mexican Americans as the most substantial block of Latino voters, were more prone to opt for Trump in 2024 compared to 2020. It seems Puerto Ricans showcased the most significant percentage increase lending their support to Trump.
Fourthly, a curious surge in support for Trump didn’t originate solely from predictable Republican faithfuls. The financial turmoil faced by many Americans seemed to widen Trump’s appeal across the political spectrum, with just over half of Trump voters in 2024 potentially identifying as Republican.
Finally, contrary to popular belief, the issue of abortion faded into the background during this election. Despite Monday’s shift to the left in states with complete abortion bans, the voting booths revealed on Tuesday that the matter did not significantly swing the national election leftwards.