Donald Trump brings about an undeniable upset in the election race, demonstrating a narrow margin against Kamala Harris in two staunchly Democratic territories. Wisconsin and Michigan are known to be bedrocks of Democratic support, and yet, the tides seem to be turning now. According to a poll released by the New York Times and Siena College on Saturday, there is no undisputed front-runner in the places that might ultimately determine the election outcome.
In Michigan, the stronghold seems to shake as Harris’s advantage over Trump is only by a meager point, standing at 48% to Trump’s 47%. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted on Thursday presents an even more minute difference, giving Harris a mere 3-point advantage with 50% in contrast to Trump’s 47%.
Meanwhile, another Thursday poll by Bloomberg/Morning Consult reports her support at 50%, slightly surpassing Trump’s 47%. These numbers corroborate with an Emerson/Pollara poll which also deciphers an equally divided support base, with both candidates sitting at 50% in Michigan.
Moving onto Wisconsin, a Democratic bastion, shows an equally interesting storyline unfolding. Harris is only ahead by two points (49% to 47%), as per the Times. This lead reduces from the previous 51% to 48%, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult figures.
On the other hand, Trump’s giant wave of support continues to display its unyielding strength in Pennsylvania. Harris is slightly ahead by 51% to 46% as reported by the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. However, an Emerson College/Pollara Strategic Insights poll suggests a significant fluctuation with the numbers indicating a tie.
The Democratic nominee also seems to lose ground in Arizona, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Despite carrying a lead of three points (50% to 47%), an Emerson/Pollara poll showcases an exact tie between Trump and Harris at 50%. Interestingly, Trump leads by one point in a Marist poll of likely voters carried out on Thursday (50% to 49%) and by five points in a New York Times/Siena College poll.
In Georgia, however, Trump’s overarching appeal seems to shine as he pulls even with Harris, both achieving 49% approval, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult. An Emerson/Pollara poll sees Harris ahead by a single point at 51% to Trump’s 49%. This democrat outshines her performance in the Marist poll and the New York Times/Siena survey, both of which place her lead at four points (49% to 45%).
Turning our attention to Nevada, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey shows Harris’s marginal lead of seven points (52% to 45%). But again, an Emerson/Pollara poll contradicts this slight lead by reporting an exact tie at 50%. An earlier Emerson poll from Sept. 19 echoed similar sentiments, showing an equal split of 48% for both candidates.
In North Carolina, an apparent split in the votes becomes evident. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey has Harris leading by a thin margin of two points (50% to 48%). Meanwhile, both she and Trump are equally poised at 48%, according to a CNN/SSRS survey, and at 50% in an Emerson/Pollara survey. Importantly, the latest Marist poll shows an equal tie at 49% for both.
A quick look at Real Clear Politics’ national polling average presents an overall picture of Harris leading by just 2 points. FiveThirtyEight, another leading poll tracker, also shows her slightly ahead by 2.7 points. But one must take into account the unpredictability of elections, and such small leads often crumble under the dynamism of voters’ sentiments.
It appears that Harris racks up more support from younger, non-white, and female voters, a kind of demographic who showed vacillation over their support for Biden before he stepped out of the race. An interesting note here from a New York Times survey is that Harris has 84% of Black voters’ support in the polls, marginally higher than Biden’s share before his withdrawal in July. It emphasizes the fickleness of voters who seem to be leaning towards an uncertain preference rather than a clear-cut choice.
On July 21, much to the disappointment of Democrats and in line with expectations amidst an ongoing intraparty revolt, Biden conceded and dropped out of the race. This occurred following his performance in a debate on June 27, which left many of his supporters and party members questioning his continued run.
Following Biden’s exit, Harris soon announced her intention to seek the nomination. In the first week of August, she was officially named the nominee when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call, an oddly orchestrated alternative method due to pandemic restrictions. Biden was quick to endorse Harris, but his exit had already left a significant mark on the race and the voters’ perception.
Pertinently, before Biden’s exit from the race, polls consistently suggested a Trump superiority in the majority of the pivotal battleground states. This projection came despite Biden’s victories in six of the seven critical states excluding North Carolina during the 2020 election. The shifting sands of the political landscape and the volatility of voter perception make this race and its outcome hard to predict with absolute certainty.