Fresh data reflects that the previous U.S. leader, Donald Trump, is on a comeback trail, gaining ground on current President Biden amidst a few pivotal opinion surveys and making deeper inroads in some. Highlights from a Politico analysis on Saturday manifest that Trump’s vote percentage nationally outmuscles its past year’s record due to the continuing slump in Biden’s polling figures.
Applying these analytical lenses, a cooperative inquiry was launched by The New York Times and Siena College involving registered voters towards the start of November. The illuminating findings showcase Trump ahead of Biden by 52-41 percent in Nevada, a state where Biden clinched a thin victory in the 2020 Presidential race.
In other states, Trump keeps gaining momentum as he also has an edge over Biden in Georgia by a margin of six points, 49-43 percent. An intriguing revelation from the same survey, brought to light by CNN, is Trump’s lead over Biden in Arizona with a vote share of 49% versus Biden’s 44%.
The former president continues to display this upward trend in Michigan too—bolstering his position with a 5-point lead—48% to Biden’s 43%. The Keystone State of Pennsylvania, where Trump was victorious in 2016, but Biden in 2020, yet again reveals a similar scenario. Trump is once again ahead with a 4-point lead, 48 to 44 percent.
However, in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Trump seems to lag behind Biden by a narrow margin of 47-45 percent. Yet, on a national level, Trump’s vote share in the national polling average is, as Politico states, ‘higher now than at any point in the past year.’
Moving beyond individual states to the national landscape, Trump outmatches Biden for the first time in a prominent national audit, providing further testimony that the current White House incumbent is politically vulnerable as we approach the next year’s election.
In a revealing disclosure from Steve Kornacki, NBC political correspondent, on a Sunday, Trump had a slight lead over Biden according to NBC’s poll, with a split of 46-44 percent. Kornacki mentioned that Biden had long enjoyed a ‘likeability’ lead over Trump, yet the current survey depicts a draw in this category.
Also worthy of analytical consideration is the finding from the same survey that reveals the dwindling percentage of respondents who perceive Biden positively in their job approval rating. That figure stands at a relatively low 40 percent, which is the weakest mark during Biden’s incumbency.
Furthermore, the approval rating among respondents who self-identify as Independents is as low as 30 percent. Kornacki emphasized that the score is noteworthy for both its implications for the Independent voter bloc and the intra-party comparison. As an incumbent president, Biden’s considerable disapproval among Independents is concerning, and the fact that his disapproval rate within Democrats at 21% exceeds the Republican approval rate of 7% offers an additional layer of complexity.
According to Politico, Biden is gradually losing traction among some traditionally loyal Democratic demographics. Across different opinion surveys during this month from Morning Consult, Fox News, and Quinnipiac University, Biden maintains minimal leads among the electorate aged 18-34 with margins of +2, +7, and +9, respectively.
The voting tendencies among young voters, more typically veering towards liberal affiliations, appear to be shifting as the latest NBC poll indicates that voters aged 18-24 are actually inclined towards Trump with a margin of 46-42 percent.
Recent polling findings depict significant strides made by Trump, with his voting share surpassing Biden’s in an array of key swing states. As per a newly released PRRI Research/Ipsos survey, Biden clings narrowly to an edge over Trump at 48–46 percent on the national front in a two-person race, with a further 6 percent of respondents indicating indifference to either candidate.
Yet when it comes to pivotal swing states, including those like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump holds a clear upper hand against Biden, leading him by a margin of six points – 49 to 43 percent.
Breitbart News attributed exclusively these data insights to the survey’s results. Previous surveys, too, impart the same narrative of Trump having voting superiority over Biden within critical swing states.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin voters made their voice heard during the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey, reflecting that Trump enjoys a 4 percentage-point lead over Biden. This can widely be attributed to a widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s economic stewardship.
However, these polling outcomes should be read with caution. While they provide a snapshot of public sentiment in the present moment, they do not necessarily indicate with certainty the electoral outcomes. There are, after all, many variables that can influence public opinion and electoral outcomes in the upcoming Presidential contest.