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A new poll conducted by Premise indicates that if the 2024 election were held today, 41% of respondents would back former President Donald J. Trump, while current President Joe Biden would receive 34% of the votes.
Even if Trump were to face legal challenges and get arrested, the poll suggests he might still maintain a lead.
When considering a hypothetical GOP primary, the data reveals that Trump is preferred by 57% of respondents, while Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) stands at 16%.
If DeSantis were to secure the GOP nomination, the poll suggests a close race with Biden, each receiving around a third of the vote, 32% and 31% respectively.
Internal polling data by Timcast News aligns with these results, showing a strong preference for Trump among GOP contenders, with a significant lead over other potential candidates, most of whom received single-digit support.
Interestingly, the data also explored a scenario wherein Trump might face convictions related to current indictments against him. In such a situation, support for Trump among Republicans might drop by 17 points to 69%.
Yet, even in this context, he would theoretically receive 39% of the overall vote, still outpacing Biden’s 34%. Of the respondents, 25% were undecided in choosing between Trump and Biden.
Such a scenario raises legal questions about the implications of electing a president potentially facing a prison sentence and the subsequent constitutional challenges that might ensue.
Despite the apparent leanings towards Trump, it’s worth noting that the poll had a higher representation of Democratic voters, which Timcast News suggests might have influenced the results to lean slightly leftward.
Notably, 55% of those who identify as Democrat felt that Biden should not pursue a second term.
Yet, alternative Democratic candidates seem to struggle to gain traction, with Vice President Kamala Harris at 21%, followed by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (15%), Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (14%), and Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) (10%).
Other Democratic potentials garnered only single-digit support.
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