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Shifting Politics among Incarcerated Populations: Support Swings towards Trump

The upcoming elections occur at a critical moment in the issue of voting rights for those who have served prison sentences. The past couple of decades have seen approximately 2 million ex-felons regain their voting privileges, as per statistics provided by The Sentencing Project. This non-profit organization aims to reduce the U.S. prison population through research and promotion of alternative sentencing options, and have reported that the revival of these civil rights has often crossed political party lines.

However, despite these notable changes, the political perspectives of the incarcerated population frequently go unexplored. Many of these people will become eligible voters once they are free, yet their opinions about politics and potential candidates are rarely considered. The Marshall Project’s groundbreaking political survey in 2020 found that many people in prison are actually supportive of Trump, debunking a widely held belief that incarcerated individuals are predominantly Democrat voters.

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This led to our current question: who would the incarcerated population lean towards in an election painted as the choice between ‘a prosecutor and a convicted felon’? Interestingly, the majority of our participants expressed their support for Trump. This backing was especially pronounced among White male respondents. Additionally, a considerable number of Black male participants voiced their willingness to vote for Trump if they were permitted to.

Correspondingly, a significant proportion of the respondents, irrespective of their racial identities, do not affiliate themselves with any of the two major political parties. Instead, they classify themselves as independent voters. On the topic of female presidents, town halls conducted among Democrats and independents concluded in large numbers that the United States is prepared for a woman president, although the Republicans appeared to be somewhat divided on this issue.

When Kamala Harris became the nominee in the place of President Joe Biden, she garnered more favor. This increased support came from certain Trump supporters, and from individuals who stated they wouldn’t vote according to the previous version of the survey. There is also an ongoing and perceptible shift in public opinion regarding disenfranchisement as a penalty for criminal behavior.

Public opinion appears to be shifting towards accepting the idea of voting rights for those serving sentences or on parole. This shift was demonstrated by a 2022 poll commissioned by criminal justice advocacy organizations, which showed that the majority of public voters would support a law ensuring voting rights for individuals aged 18 and above, even for those located in prisons or under legal supervision.

Comparatively, earlier, the majority of people were seemingly opposed to the idea of incarcerated people having the opportunity to vote from within prisons. Despite these evolving attitudes, real-life changes in public policy are yet to substantiate and reflect these perspectives. In the year 2023, a relative legislative stalemate was encountered by a bill introduced by Rep. Ayanna Pressley and Sen. Peter Welch.

This progressive legislation, designed to guarantee imprisoned individuals the right to vote, is currently stuck in the Judiciary Committee. Another similar bill aimed to grant voting rights to prisoners in Washington state has faced an identical problem earlier this year. In 2020, however, the District of Columbia took a significant step forward by restoring voting rights to its prison population.

Yet, only a few jurisdictions permit prisoners to exercise voting rights. Additionally, the overwhelming majority of people in jail have the right to vote on Election Day, but only a fraction actually do, primarily due to a multitude of obstacles. Besides, felony disenfranchisement does not leave unscathed the voting habits of those who do not even bear felony records.

Research repeatedly unveils that the voting rates are suppressed in societies with a high proportion of people in prisons. Even insignificant interactions with the legal system, such as being cited for traffic infractions or short stints in jail, can discourage people from casting votes. Furthermore, an important statistic to consider is that nearly half of all American adults, approximately 113 million people, have an immediate family member who has been or is currently incarcerated.

A staggering count of roughly 79 million U.S. residents have any sort of a criminal record. However, the perspective of how prisons shape the American society seldom gets highlighted during the election season. A participant in our survey, Donarico Caudle from North Carolina prison, exemplifies such neglected narratives. He mentioned his concerns about the large prison population, a significant issue that receives inadequate attention during political campaigns.

He remarked, ‘The attention given to the incarcerated population is minimal, even though we have more people locked up than any other country worldwide. I comprehend the multitude of global issues at hand, but we cannot ignore that mass incarceration is a grave concern.’ A caveat we must remember about this survey, however, is the voluntary nature of participation. This means, implicitly, that those who chose to participate might be already politically inclined, absorbing news and following political developments.

In conclusion, the evolving circumstances surrounding the voting rights for the formerly incarcerated and the collective sentiment among the impacted population warrant close scrutiny. Understandably, the results of this survey offer substantial insights into the political leanings and voting preferences of prisoners. Keeping a close eye on these developments is pivotal in the journey for inclusivity and justice that is meant to empower all citizens, including those in prison or with criminal records.