Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, has resorted to desperate measures by signing into law a decree offering debt forgiveness to fresh army recruits committed to fighting in Ukraine. In a clear testament to Russia’s growing exigencies for enhanced military workforce, this legislation appeared on a government portal just recently. Coinciding with this, Russia further demonstrated its far-reaching desperation last week by firing off a new intermediate-range ballistic missile. The essence of this recently passed law is the provision for conscripts entering a one-year contract to nullify bad debts up to 10 million rubles ($96,000).
The law is applicable to legal debts, meaning that a court order for collection must have been issued and execution proceedings initiated prior to Dec. 1, 2024. Strangely, this act of desperation even extends to the spouses of new army recruits. In a reckless bid to bolster military numbers at the Ukraine front, Russia has resorted to offering ostentatious financial lures, often surpassing the average wage multifold, to incentivise enlistment. Rather absurdly, this approach has contributed to augmenting the conflict zone military population, while skirting around the need for another mobilization command.
Following a ‘partial mobilization’ back in September 2022, there was a tipping point with thousands of Russian men fleeing the country to evade conscription. The extravagantly prolonged and intense war now strains Russia’s resources to breaking point. Putin, in a desperate attempt, called for an increase in troops to the tune of 180,000 back in September. There are reports from the U.S., South Korea, and Ukraine that North Korea dispatched over 10,000 troops to Russia in October, which presses Ukraine’s already exhausted army further.
Coincidentally, this intensified pursuit for recruits corresponds with last week’s launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile aimed at Ukraine. Bizarrely rationalising this treacherous act, Putin claimed the missile strike was a reaction to Kyiv’s usage of American and British missiles capable of deeper penetration into Russian territory. Ukraine’s Security Services, on Sunday, showed remnants of this new experimental ballistic missile, which tragically struck a factory in Dnipro, a city in central Ukraine.
Mysteriously named ‘Oreshnik’ – Russian for hazel tree, the missile, which the Pentagon says is based on Russia’s RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile, left little beyond some charred wires and an ashy airframe, about the size of a large snow tire. The wreckage, yet to be analysed, is believed to be capable of carrying either conventional or atomic warheads. In a telling admission, a Ukrainian Security Service expert noted the uniqueness of this incident, emphasizing never before had remnants of such a missile been found on Ukrainian soil.
As per Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the missile, complete with six warheads with six submunitions each, was launched from Russia’s 4th Missile Test Range, Kapustin Yar, in the Astrakhan region. The missile flew for about 15 minutes, achieving peak speeds of 11 Mach before finding its mark in Dnipro. Caught in the crossfire of all this, President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz, expressed concerns about the escalating tension.
Mike Waltz’s expressed intent to ‘get both sides to the table’, apart from being worryingly neutral in the face of unprovoked aggression, was devoid of a firm stance against escalating hostility. He reportedly met with Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to discuss U.S. policy and options in Ukraine, hinting at ongoing negotiations. His claim of unwavering unity and cohesiveness amongst the U.S. administrative ranks in the transition phase seems frankly rosy considering the vastly differing political ideology between the outgoing and incoming administration.
Waltz surprisingly endorsed Biden’s decision to supply antipersonnel mines to Ukraine forces. His justification suggests that such a step might help solidify the lines while curbing Russian advancements, which seems questionable at best. Even as he concurred with Trump’s anxious wishes for a swift resolution to the conflict, he conveniently steered clear of any mention of the conditions that would define this resolution, painting an unclear picture of the incoming approach from the Trump administration.
Interestingly, Trump, who has previously lauded Putin, refrained from defining conditions for Peace during his campaign, insinuating that he may entertain significant annexations of Ukraine. This puzzling stance provides little comfort for those eager to see a decisive and responsible end to the conflict. Waltz also artfully skirted discussing what terms Trump might adopt post his inauguration.
Vague expressions of concern over the aggravating situation and optimism towards a ‘responsible end’ were the only concrete thoughts Waltz provided. He stressed the need to instil deterrence and peace. However, these hollow words lack a clear plan, leaving many skeptical.
Meanwhile, Moscow continued its incessant acts of aggression, sending 73 drones into Ukraine as recently as Sunday. Ukraine’s air force managed to bring down 50 drones; four were lost, assumed to have been electronically sabotaged. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that over the past week, Russian forces had unleashed more than 800 aerial guided bombs, about 460 attack drones, and over 20 missiles on Ukraine.
Russia, refusing to be outdone, announced that it had shot down 34 Ukrainian drones overnight into Sunday over four regions of western Russia, including Kursk, Lipetsk, and Belgorod, and one over the Oryol region. This tit-for-tat military engagement further intensifies the conflict, with no clear end in sight.
As tensions escalate and international anxieties rise, it is critical that the global community continues to monitor the ongoing situation in Ukraine. With the incoming Trump administration’s approach to the crisis still seemingly undefined, we can only hope that a clear, strong, and justified stance will prevail in the weeks to come.