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Pollster Frank Luntz: “I Would Bet on Trump”

Trump’s Bounce-Back: Impeachment & Indictments Fuel Popularity

Pollster Frank Luntz
NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 06: Frank Luntz, Founder and Chairman of Luntz Global, attends GLG And NYPEN Host A Conversation On The 2016 Presidential Election With Political Strategists Frank Luntz And Jefrey Pollock at GLG (Gerson Lehrman Group) on October 6, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Donald Bowers/Getty Images for GLG)

Noted Republican survey researcher, Frank Luntz, has recently expressed a surprising expectation about the 2024 presidential race. During a post-CNN debate conversation, he suggested that he places his odds on former President Donald Trump leading the charge in the upcoming election. One could hardly have anticipated such an assertion, considering the myriad of hurdles Mr. Trump has encountered since his term ended.

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Following Wednesday’s televised debate, a CBS News journalist pressed Luntz for his prediction. The precise inquiry was, ‘If you were to stake $150,000 on the ultimate victor come November, where would your bet be placed?’ Luntz’s response was nothing short of staggering.

‘Truthfully, I never imagined I would be uttering these words, but I’d wager on Trump’, he confessed. His admission was riddled with disbelief, underpinned by the assumption that the challenges faced by the former President would have definitively marred his re-election prospects.

Luntz continued, ‘It’s practically unheard of for one to bounce back from an impeachment, nor from the events of January 6. Certainly, there were moments when it seemed his political career had met its end. Nevertheless, he has proven startlingly resilient. The myriad of issues plaguing his political adversary presents an opening that might put Trump in an advantageous position’.

However, when approached by Breitbart News for verification of his comments in the aftermath of the CNN debate, Luntz made an attempt to slightly retrench his earlier statements. He pointed out that, should Trump underperform in the Iowa Caucuses, the course of the entire competition could be drastically altered.

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In a text message, Luntz clarified, ‘I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on this. After all, the entire landscape could be dramatically reshaped come Monday, should Trump’s performance falter’. However, current indicators suggest that Trump is charging forward into Iowa with substantial momentum.

As of Friday afternoon, RealClearPolling’s average shows Trump currently enjoys a favorability rating of 53% among Iowans. This is a significant leap over his closest rival, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is polling at a comparatively meek 17.8%. Trump thus leads the standings by a considerable margin of 35.2 percentage points.

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Earlier in December, Luntz forecasted that Trump’s legal woes, specifically his removal from the Colorado ballot via a 4-3 verdict from the state Supreme Court—an action currently on hold pending U.S. Supreme Court’s decision—could possibly bolster Trump’s standing in polls. The unintended consequences of legal battles appear to catalyze his support, rather than diminish it.

Luntz shared, ‘How will the Colorado State Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump influence the polls? It could have a similar effect to his 91 indictments. I have discussed with Pamela Brown from CNN about why Trump’s chances for victory next November might have just elevated’.

In a late December appearance on CNN with Pamela Brown, he elaborated on his perspective. ‘Behind every indictment, every public reproach, his support appears only to increase as voters rally behind him. In fact, the chances of Trump triumphant over Biden seem to rise incrementally’, Luntz assured.

It has appeared that each of Trump’s legal and political challenges, counterintuitively, only seems to strengthen his popularity. Even while facing such impediments, Trump has demonstrated a unique ability to persist, which has kept him in the competitive mix for the 2024 presidency, according to public opinion data.

While the dynamics of the race could still shift, as Luntz pointed out, Trump’s current position suggests a candidate that won’t be easily brushed aside. A glance at the data certainly hints at considerable support and resilience, despite what some might consider an insurmountable series of misfortunes.

Despite recent challenges to Trump’s candidacy, including the temporary disenfranchisement from the Colorado ballot, Luntz posits a potential silver lining. He suggests that these issues, far from being crushing blows to Trump’s campaign, may actually be working to his advantage—a paradox that this campaign seems to be familiar with.

Whether the former President’s political career will truly experience a comeback a Chicago mitosis or falter amid ongoing legal battles remains to be seen. Nonetheless, one cannot deny the unique challenge and intrigue presented by what promises to be a closely-monitored and potentially groundbreaking presidential race.

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