Recent poll results demonstrate a shifting political tide favoring former President Donald Trump over the current occupant of the White House, President Joe Biden, when it comes to the public’s top concerns. The ABC/Ipsos survey conducted over March 8-9 with 539 adult participants revealed 36 percent trusted Trump more, compared to 33 percent who leaned toward Biden, whereas the remaining 30 percent expressed distrust in both.
Interestingly, when it came to evaluating the performance of each leader on different fronts, Trump outshone Biden in all spheres, with exceptions being climate change and abortion. On fiscal matters, the former President achieved an endorsement of 49 percent for his handling of the economy, leaving Biden trailing behind with just 37 percent approval.
Reflecting on inflationary concerns, a 45 percent majority voiced their support for Trump, contrasted by a less favorable 31 percent approval rating for Biden. When it came to the issue of crime, Trump secured an approval score of 41 percent, significantly higher than Biden’s 35 percent.
Similarly, Trump outperformed Biden on the matter of immigration, with the former leader achieving a favorable rating of 45 percent while Biden lagged with just 29 percent. The approval numbers suggest a considerable disparity between the public’s confidence in each President’s policies and their ability to effectively tackle such cardinal issues.
Recent examination of the post-State of the Union Address polling numbers indicates they don’t agree with the flattering depiction of Biden’s performance championed by Democratic supporters and much of mainstream media. As suggested by Aaron Blake in his piece published in The Washington Post, it appears the American public didn’t perceive the purported ‘success’ echoed in the media.
Post-speech instant polling from reputable sources such as CNN, and a few other outlets, didn’t support the notion of an overwhelmingly successful address as might usually have been expected after such an event. Media attention has been drawn to an immediate CNN poll post-speech, which shows 65 percent of viewers felt positively about Biden’s address.
Moreover, a significant swing in perceptions about the country’s direction was also noted, with viewers expressing optimism. Before the speech, the number stood at 45 percent, and it increased by 17 points to 62 percent following Biden’s address, indicating an improved outlook among the public.
However, a contrasting view has also been presented: State of the Union speeches typically generate favorable reactions, mostly because viewers tend to be supporters of the delivering President. The 65 percent approval rate for Biden’s speech was, in fact, lower than any such speeches recorded by CNN in the past 25 years, with the earlier low score being Donald Trump’s 2018 address with 70 percent approval.
Further, only 35 percent of the viewers had a ‘very’ positive review, similar to last year’s rating. The 2022 address, along with George W. Bush’s 2007 speech, only received ‘very’ positive marks from 41 percent of viewers, creating another historical low.
The 17-point shift in the direction the country was moving might appear substantial, yet it’s hardly extraordinary in historical terms. For instance, Bill Clinton’s 1998 State of the Union address resulted in a similar shift towards optimism averaging 15 points.
The caveat to these findings is that the viewers of this State of the Union Address were less in agreement with the President than we usually see – possibly a consequence of the campaign year or skepticism about Biden’s capabilities, which drew more viewers than normal.
In the CNN sample, a fairly even split was observed with 36 percent identifying as Democrats and 30 percent as Republicans. Such a Democratic-Republican viewer ratio was uncommon in contrast to other State of the Union surveys, where the President’s party generally enjoys a clear double-digit advantage.
Despite the relatively even viewer mix, former President Trump still enjoyed stronger approval ratings for his speeches in 2017 and 2018, achieving 78 percent and 70 percent positive reviews respectively. As we move forward, it will be essential to continue analyzing further data, going beyond simple speech reviews. The most critical information that we must pay attention to involves evolving perceptions about crucial issues such as Biden’s competence.
