Texas’ largest cities are witnessing a notable shift in their political atmosphere as the trend veers rightward. Specifically, the mayoral landscape seems to be moving away from steadfast Democratic loyalty, paving the way for new leaders as mayoral tenure ends for long-standing incumbents. The pivotal premise for this shift appears to be the mayoral election in San Antonio, known for its staunch Democratic adherence. With a whopping 27 candidates eager to take the gavel from Mayor Ron Nirenberg, a shift in political leaning might be imminent, altering the urban power dynamic in favor of Republicans.
Although mayoral races are prima facie nonpartisan, there’s no denying the political nuances that pour into these races from behind the scenes. Both Republicans and Democrats have invested huge sums to shape public sentiment in recent years. The change began with Fort Worth, universally recognized as one of the few Republican-led metropolises in the country. It then extended to Dallas when Democrat Mayor Eric Johnson decided to cross lines and join the GOP.
In contrast, Austin and Houston decided to play it safe. Replacing outgoing liberal Democrats, both cities opted for old-school, centrist Democrats. For example, in the late ’90s Austin was led by Democratic leader, Kirk Watson. Interestingly, Watson defeated a state legislator who sought to steer a progressive narrative for the city.
Lately, the good old ‘blue islands’ of Texas have been grappling with an unsavory image of the Democratic party. This has been a significant factor in the paradigm shift that seems to be in play. Previously, large Democratic-led cities in Texas were barricades against Republican-leaning legislature policies, challenging state laws and employing city funds to provide services when state funds were cut.
However, this year presents a situation quite unique – an intensely competitive race for Nirenberg’s successor. Many of the various candidates are promoting their willingness to either work alongside state and federal leaders or fight their policies, central points in their campaigns.
The Republicans are predominantly rallying around Rolando Pablos, a previous Secretary of State under Governor Greg Abbott. The GOP views Pablos as an ideal opportunity to change the prevalent progressive city leadership orientation and continuous clashes with state directives.
Pablos, however, is not the lone warrior from his party seeking the mayoral position. He has rivals in his own lane – a retired Northside Councilman, Clayton Perry, and Tim Westley, an employee from the Department of Defense.
Democrats, interestingly, don’t seem to have a clear frontrunner amongst the many contenders. This list includes Gina Ortiz Jones, a former Air Force Under Secretary, tech entrepreneur Beto Altamirano, and council members Manny Pelaez, John Courage, Adriana Rocha Garcia, and Melissa Cabello Havrda.
Jones and Cabello Havrda stand out as the most vocal critics of state leadership amongst the Democratic contenders. Their tenacity towards state policies seems to be a recurring narrative of their campaigns.
San Antonio, historically a bastion of Democratic support, still appears to lean in favor of its city leaders, as opposed to the state, according to a recent UTSA poll. This lends credence to the possibility that the city might maintain its Democratic stance.
However, the impending May 3rd mayoral race will almost certainly extend into a June 7th runoff inserting the top two contenders into a duel for the final victory. For a candidate to claim the throne, he or she must secure 50% of the vote.
Presently, only one candidate, Gina Ortiz Jones, has been able to garner support in double digits according to public opinion polls. Despite this scenario, with the dramatic rightward shift in the political landscape of Texas, the final outcome remains unpredictable.