With the New York City mayoral primary elections looming in less than five months, a pattern seems to be emerging among the potential contenders. The determining factor, it appears, is not just policy positions or political affiliations, but primarily a candidate’s familiarity among the electorate. In a recent poll by Manhattan Institute, only two candidates displayed strong name recognition: Mayor Eric Adams and former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who’s yet to declare his candidacy.
Being well-known, however, is a double-edged sword, as clearly demonstrated by Adams. Although a known figure in the city, his approval ratings present a concern. A striking 71% of voters seem to have a negative perception of him, leaving a meager 25% with a positive view. On the other hand, Cuomo—despite his share of controversies—appears to be holding his ground, securing a nearly even split with 46% favorable versus 49% unfavorable views.
In addition to backlash against individual politicians, the residents of New York City appear disillusioned with their city’s state of affairs. A significant 66% believe that the Big Apple isn’t charting the right course, unveiling a rife dissatisfaction with the status quo.
These circumstances conjure an intriguing scenario—an intense face-off between Adams and Cuomo, two stalwarts of transactional politics rather than ideologically rigid ‘leftist gatekeepers’. Notwithstanding Adams’ current predicament, one should not count him out—this won’t be the last time these two well-known individuals cross paths, despite being of the same Democratic party.
In order to substantiate this hypothesis, the Manhattan institute conducted a survey, encompassing 618 New York City-registered voters. This voter demographic was tailored to reflect an accurate representation of the demographic that would likely participate in the 2025 mayoral elections, mirroring characteristics like gender, age, race, and an array of other granular factors.
In this heated political contest, Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres emerges as a notable entrant. Even though his ambition seems tilted towards nabbing the top position in Albany, he’s carved out a distinguishing role in the race. His relentless critiques of state progressives, coupled with the incumbent administration’s handling of crime and housing issues, has elevated his status. Among voters, he enjoys a 57% recognition rate and scores positive favorability among Democrats and Republicans alike.
Portraying a figure like Torres, theoretically, seems to be the banner-bearer of a formidable Democratic Party in the days to come. However, his presence at the moment merely underscores the fragile state of the city’s progressive leadership.
The progressive candidates, despite their cultural influence, still struggle to carve a niche for themselves among the electorate. The city’s Comptroller, Brad Lander, and a handful of other left-leaning prospects remain virtually anonymous to a large chunk of voters. None have managed to secure more than 16% support in our simulated Democratic primary.
Our poll results indicate a potential victory for Cuomo should he decide to throw his hat into the ring. In the first round of the Democratic Primary, he garnered 30% support, clearly outperforming Adams who bagged a mere 14%. In a simulated ranked-choice primary setup, lesser-known progressive candidates get knocked out in initial rounds, followed by former comptroller Scott Stringer and eventually Lander.
In the final round, we project a close race between Cuomo and Adams. Our simulations project a 53% to 47% win for Cuomo. If reality mirrors these results, it would mark the first time after David Dinkins’ 1989 unseating of Ed Koch that an incumbent Democratic mayor has lost a primary.
However, for Adams, hope is not lost. If his approval among Democratic voters continues to plummet, he could have the extraordinary opportunity to run as a Republican. According to the Wilson-Pakula law of New York state, all five GOP county committees could grant Adams the authorization to run as a Republican.
This might seem like a far stretch, but if former President Trump endorses the idea, this scenario might just play out. Adams could reposition himself as a proponent of ‘law and order’, targeted against Cuomo. This would inevitably frame the critical issues in the general election as being related to crime and cost of living.
Adams’ crime-centric rhetoric, already mirroring that of Trump’s 2024 strategies, and their unified opposition to progressive immigration policies could potentially woo moderate voters. While this may include crossing party lines and potentially inviting rebuke from influential Republican figures, the acceptance from Trump’s close circle suggests a possible alliance with Adams.
The poll predicts a hypothetical Cuomo-Adams face-off tilting in favor of the former governor – leading 50% to 27%. Nevertheless, Adams could establish a robust base unmatched by recent Republican candidates. Considering Trump’s 30% citywide support last year, Adams, by consolidating this, could theoretically craft the city’s first genuinely competitive general mayoral election in recent memory.