A recent poll conducted by ABC News/Washington Post has unveiled troublesome signs for Democrat incumbent President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign. According to the poll, former President Donald Trump is currently leading Biden by a considerable margin of nearly ten points in a hypothetical November 2024 matchup.
Trump enjoys 51% support while Biden has seen a decline with only 42%. This marks a three-point increase for Trump and a two-point decrease for Biden as compared to a previous ABC/Post poll in February.
Several factors may account for these findings. Biden’s performance ratings have been lackluster, and discontent over the state of the economy is growing. Additionally, concerns relating to the immigration crisis and doubts surrounding Biden’s age have also become more pronounced.
These issues have gained significant traction in recent news coverage, shifting the public discourse towards negativity for the president.
On the other hand, Trump has leveraged his criminal indictments to consolidate support among his base and has benefited from positive coverage highlighting his prominence within the GOP.
The survey highlights another concerning statistic: Biden retains only 88% of his 2020 supporters. Among the remaining voters, 7% now express support for Trump, a notable increase from 3% in February.
The rest remain undecided. However, the most damaging revelation for Biden lies in his job approval ratings. A staggering 56% of respondents expressed disapproval, while an overwhelming 75% expressed retrospective approval of Trump’s performance in office, including both Democrats and independents.
The data also suggests that the Democratic Party, and Biden in particular, are experiencing a significant decline in support among racial and ethnic minority groups.
In contrast, Trump has managed to make inroads, increasing his support from 32% to 43% among Hispanic voters. It is worth noting that the poll curiously overlooks any mention of black voters as a statistical category, despite their pivotal role in determining the outcome of Democratic campaigns.
However, according to a recent report from The Washington Post, multiple high-quality polls indicate that Trump is averaging 20% support among Black voters and 42% support among Hispanic voters, potentially breaking historical records.
Democratic pollsters Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman, in an article for The Hill, have identified various factors that may hinder Biden’s re-election prospects.
They note the country’s frustration with inflation and apprehensions regarding the idea of Vice President Kamala Harris, seen by many as a potential successor, being only a heartbeat away from the presidency. The findings of the latest ABC/Post poll seem to corroborate these concerns.