On a typical Friday in the U.S. capital, a significant event unfolded within the American justice system; Rubén Oseguera-Gonzalez, high-profile drug lord and deemed the ‘Narco Prince,’ was given a lifetime sentence by a federal judge. This marked a major milestone in the continuation of the drug war trials since the Trump administration labeled specific Mexican cartels as ‘terrorist’ entities.
Referred to as ‘El Menchito’ and originating from the U.S., Rubén Oseguera-Gonzalez is the offspring of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, the notorious founder of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the most pursued individual in Mexico. His father, widely known by his alias ‘El Mencho,’ is still beyond the grasp of law enforcement. In contrast, El Menchito faced conviction in the U.S. during September for his involvement in cocaine and meth trafficking as well as weapon possession to further his illicit activities.
During this pivotal moment, Judge Beryl A. Howell delivered El Menchito’s sentencing of life imprisonment plus an additional 30 years. Also, he was mandated to surrender more than $6 billion. Throughout these proceedings, Oseguera stood stoically, with his left hand placed behind his back, and elected to remain silent when the opportunity was presented.
Throughout his trial, the prosecution portrayed El Menchito as more than a mere participant in the crime syndicate; rather, they contended he was one of its founding members and served as a co-leader alongside his father. Comparing his extreme influence to other notorious cartel heads, including Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán of the Sinaloa Cartel, the sentencing document equated El Menchito’s standing with theirs.
Ever since the Trump administration took charge, there has been a significant intensification in attempts to target drug-trafficking rings. Concurrently, the U.S. has been exerting pressure on Mexico for reining in immigration and obstructing fentanyl trafficking, with potential tariffs as a means of leverage.
Yet, the actions by the Trump administration, the sentencing of Oseguera, and significant legal developments regarding numerous high-profile traffickers may very well have minimal impact on the drug trade or the associated violence. Instead, these actions might deepen rifts within criminal networks, thereby sparking a rise in violence within Mexico.
The CJNG is a product of the drug war between the U.S. and Mexico that commenced in 2006. Since its inception, it has quickly swelled into a primary criminal entity within Mexico, maintaining sporadic territorial control primarily in western, central, and southern parts of the country and engaging in territorial disputes with rival factions.
Today, the CJNG is generally considered ‘the most aggressive and violently inclined cartel in Mexico,’ according to prosecutors in Washington, D.C., who contributed to Oseguera’s sentencing memorandum. The life of its co-founder, Oseguera, coincides with the dangerous evolution of CJNG.
Despite his relative youth, Oseguera has spent a substantial part of his existence in custody, both in Mexico and the U.S. A volatile power struggle emerged within CJNG following arrests and killings of top-tier members, leading to its fragmentation and the ensuing rise of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel in 2010.
Alluding to court documents, El Mencho and his son presided over a myriad of Mexican meth labs. The CJNG has garnered a reputation for violence and propaganda, with one instance involving the shooting down of a Mexican military helicopter in 2015 that killed nine officials, casting a global spotlight on the cartel.
Oseguera began his criminal career while still in his teens, working alongside his father and other leading figures in the Mexican underworld. Even after his imprisonment in Mexico, Oseguera remained closely tied to the criminal enterprise, referring to himself as the ‘Number 2’ within the organization’s hierarchy.
However, his defense lawyers tried to argue that Oseguera was entrapped in a life of crime, thrust upon him not by choice, but by the circumstance of being El Mencho’s son. After the Friday verdict, the legal team announced their intent to challenge the sentencing.
A consensus among experts studying Mexican organized crime suggests that the legal repercussions faced by Oseguera, along with the simultaneous arrests of several upper-echelon cartel leaders, may have little effect on the drug trade, consumption, and associated violence.
‘These criminal networks operate with heavy decentralization, making the displacement of any one figurehead insufficient. Only a series of sustained strikes on high-value targets could lead to their disintegration,’ an expert commented. They added, ‘But they merely dissolve into smaller factions which regroup under new leadership. It’s a pattern we’ve witnessed consistently.’
The Trump administration continues to intensify efforts against Mexican organized crime due to the U.S.’s ongoing fentanyl crisis. Several groups linked to these criminal activities have been listed as ‘terrorist’ by Trump’s State Department, causing further tension with Mexico, which perceives any military involvement as a breach of its sovereignty.
Recently, the Mexican government made an unusual gesture by extraditing nearly 30 high-profile perpetrators affiliated with various drug cartels to the United States. Predicting the potential fallout, one professor observed, ‘The sentencing of El Menchito will not signify much in this futile ‘war.’ We’ve witnessed this scenario repeatedly in the past and likely will continue to do so in the foreseeable future, with little to no impact.’