On February 23, the conservative opposition in Germany, led by Friedrich Merz, emerged victorious in the national election. Merz expressed his commitment to advance Europe’s autonomy from the United States while he works towards assembling a government.
At 69, Merz now navigates intricate and time-consuming coalition negotiations following the noteworthy second-place clinch by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), contributing to a remarkably divided vote after the demise of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way alliance, which was largely unpopular.
Exclude from collaboration with mainstream parties, the AfD, nevertheless, saw support from notable American figures, including tech magnate Elon Musk and ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Merz, lacking prior formal office experience, is set to lead as chancellor at a challenging time: with Germany’s economy faltering, conflicting views on migration dividing society, and the nation’s defense in a tug of war between a combative U.S and an aggressive Russia and China.
Post-election, Mr. Merz’s censure of U.S. interference was sharp and upfront. He equated the unsolicited opinions from Washington during the election run to unsettling interventions from Russia, asserting that such external pressures make European unity his top priority.
Notwithstanding former President Trump’s approval of the election result, Merz furthered his critique of the U.S., alluding to the indifference of the Trump administration towards Europe’s condition. A known Atlanticist, Merz highlighted Trump’s ambivalence towards the continent’s fate.
Merz underscored his primary goal: to fortify Europe with haste, striving to gradually extricate the continent from its dependencies on the U.S. Raising the question of the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, he opened up discussions about potentially revising the agreement that has been the bedrock of Europe’s security for decades.
In the wake of a turbulent campaign colored by violent incidents, leading to the arrest of those with immigrant backgrounds, Merz’s conservative union, the CDU/CSU, secured 28.5 per cent of voter support, followed by AfD with a significant 20.5 per cent.
The AfD, likely to double its previous result, saw the outcome as merely the beginning. Leader Alice Weidel confidently extended her readiness to contribute to a government, rallying her supporters with a hopeful promise that their party will secure the top spot in future.
Merz, however, enters coalition discussions without a robust negotiating position. Despite the CDU/CSU emerging as the largest faction, its ensuing verdict was close to its second-worst post-war result, leading to uncertainties about the required number of coalition partners for Merz to achieve a majority.
Whereas small party results remain unpredictable, the potential emergence of another three-way coalition may further complicate Germany’s ability to demonstrate unambiguous leadership. Merz’s task of forming a workable coalition is highly challenging, possibly even leading to a more cumbersome scenario.
From the fallout, the Social Democrats (SPD) under Chancellor Scholz suffered a historic low in election results with a mere 16.4 per cent vote share. An equally disappointing outcome for the Greens was seen with just 12.2 per cent of the votes.
Interestingly, the far-left party Die Linke witnessed an upsurge in support, especially from the younger demographic, securing 8.9 per cent of the votes. Both the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP) and newcomer BSW party were on the cusp of the 5 per cent threshold to secure parliamentary entry.
Banking group ING’s global head of macro, Carsten Brzeski, cautioned about the dangers of a potential three-party coalition, including the risk of stagnation if significant changes aren’t implemented. He highlighted that such an outcome would prevent the AfD from bolstering its position and may deter foreign investments, thus weakening Germany’s economic prospects.
Reflecting high political engagement, voter turnout peaked at 83 per cent – a record high since reunification in 1990. Exit polls revealed a gender-based voting pattern: right-leaning parties saw more appeal among men, whereas women favoured left-wing parties.
A proponent of bold economic liberal policies, Friedrich Merz offers a stark contrast to his predecessor, Angela Merkel. Merz, a right-leaning conservative, signals a sharp departure from Merkel’s moderate conservatism. Furthermore, his support for arming Ukraine with longer-range Taurus missiles, a move which Scholz’s government had been averse to, positions Europe more firmly within the NATO alliance. The implications of February 23’s election, which followed the collapse of Scholz’s coalition, are still unfolding and could continue to influence Germany’s economic and political landscape.