The clock had just struck 9 p.m. on election night in the heart of Pittsburgh. Inside an expansive suite on the 24th floor of the esteemed Fairmont Hotel, the scene was energetic and filled with anticipation. Removed from the clustered couches and chairs and brought in their place were a few campaign staffers seated at desks or various temporary workstations. They were eagerly tracking the preliminary election data streaming in from various parts of Pennsylvania. At the epicenter of the bustling room, Dave McCormick focused intently on a computer monitor, with his supportive wife, Dina Powell, standing close by, lending a comforting touch.
As the evening was yet young, McCormick, the Republican candidate striving to take the Senate seat, was currently trailing behind Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat. Nevertheless, the atmosphere was surprisingly relaxed, devoid of frantic worry. In an almost tranquil defiance of the initial numbers, laughing faces could be seen towards the screens. Behind this collected state, was the crew’s conviction. They were well aware of the probability of McCormick’s triumph by the end of the day, an outcome they had already begun to foresee over the past month.
While Dave McCormick’s victory was evident to his team, it still required two full days for the announcement to be officially made. Senator Bob Casey conceded his lost race after two weeks, marking an unexpected turn of events. Very few analysts could have predicted that the Democrat, who was serving his third term in office, could be overturned by a competitor his electoral unit underestimated initially.
The storyline that unfolded depicts a remarkable journey of Dave McCormick; a prestigious West Point graduate originating from Bloomsburg, Pennsylvania. Previously, McCormick had witnessed a highly contested, narrow defeat in the Republican Senate primary two years back. Now he had managed to supersede Casey, whose family has been in Pennsylvania’s political scene for over forty years, a specter deemed virtually unbeatable. Following his previous failure, McCormick was uncertain of making a second attempt. However, within a year, he was back in the race, this time more prepared than ever.
His campaign strategy relied upon a group of professionals, each hailing from unique backgrounds and a diverse range of experiences. It was a gamble, surely, to collaborate with a team unfamiliar with each other. These circumstances contrast sharply with traditional political campaigns, where the campaign team usually functions as a single consolidated unit.
Their task was not less than an uphill battle. They had to defeat an individual who, barring a single gubernatorial primary race in 2002, had emerged victorious in every statewide election he entered. This included elections for the posts like state auditor general, state treasurer, and the Senate. A crucial aspect was that Casey was carrying forward the legacy of his father, a revered centrist Democrat governor of the state. The odds of defeating someone of such stature from the outsider’s perspective seemed far-fetched.
However, the campaign team’s analysis revealed a different reality. It became apparent that the popularity Casey enjoyed was superficial at best: well-known, yet ineffectual. The electorate was associated with the Casey name but oblivious to his political achievements or active initiatives. It implied that Casey failed to build political collateral. Consequently, to sway the scales, it was essential to introduce McCormick effectively into the political landscape.
In this endeavor, they found a significant ally in Keystone Renewal, a super PAC headed by Sean Parnell, a former Army Ranger who had served in Afghanistan and resided in western Pennsylvania. Keystone Renewal’s involvement was instrumental; without it, McCormick’s campaign may have faltered before the finish line. Parnell raised an impressive $14 million and successfully engaged different flanks of the community, bringing traditional, young, and not typically politically involved voters to actively participate through vote-by-mail initiatives.
Republicans managed to add a massive total of 240,430 people to their standing vote-by-mail list. For the first time, state Republicans outnumbered Democrats in swaying more voters towards their vote-by-mail list. Parnell’s team also managed to secure votes from 365,000 first-time voters. Integrating these first-time voters into the next political cycle is essential to augment the vote-by-mail list, which will undoubtedly bring huge dividends in future elections.
As a result, the unique coalition of voters that rallied behind McCormick led him to victory. Undoubtedly, some suburban upper-income voters chose McCormick but shunned the Presidential candidate. Conversely, a few individuals from blue-collar, suburban, and ex-urban-based communities voted for the Presidential candidate but remained indifferent to the Senate race. However, the expanding conservative populist base that the press had previously overlooked played a vital role.
This base chiefly comprised working-class individuals along with a few capitalists who thought the Democrats had strayed too far. What won McCormick the much-cherished victory, in the end, was his effective leadership within the campaign infrastructure.
The final campaign advertisement was shot on the streets of West Point. McCormick narrated his transformative experience of passing through the academy’s gates, and how it planted the seeds of serving his country for life. This sentiment was his driving force behind stepping into the electoral race. As voters understand what motivates a candidate, they are more likely to be persuaded, making this narrative crucial in winning over undecided voters. Swing voters, by their nature, lack strong opinions or, paradoxically, hold conflicting ideologies; they voted based on their perception of the candidate’s motivations.
Finally, the painstaking strategy of seeking votes in locations like Pennsylvania’s Luzerne and Bucks counties, penetrating into Democratic strongholds such as Montgomery and Philadelphia, proved fruitful. McCormick’s victory can be attributed to the gut instincts of voters: they evaluated the motivations behind the candidates and cast their votes accordingly.