Recent data approved by the Memphis Shelby County Crime Commission reveals a considerable decrese in criminal activity across the majority of categories in Memphis, as indicated by the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation. Notably, a significant plunge, almost 20%, was identified in the category of major property crime. This grouping encompasses serious offences such as thefts, burglaries, and car thefts, with the year-on-year comparison for the period of 2023-2024 indicating a downward trend.
While the decline in violent high-level crime was relatively lesser in comparison, an overall 4.2% decrease was still observed. This category includes several serious crimes such as murders, rapes, aggravated assaults, and robberies. Regardless of the marginal nature of the drop, these numbers represent an overall decline in violence in Memphis over the course of the year.
An examination of the data retrieved from 2024, however, reveals a slight rise in one particular area – aggravated assaults – compared to its previous year. Despite the total number of these offenses actually being marginally down from 2023, this crime rate, adjusted for shifts in population size, elevated by around 0.6% between the two years.
The hike in the aggravated assault rate has been attributed to the loss in population over the year, indicating that assaults may have increased marginally relative to the city’s total inhabitants. This paints a somewhat different picture and emphasizes the importance of adjusting crime rates for population changes.
Examining more specifically, the murder rate experienced a steep drop of almost 30%, falling to 39.8 murders per 100,000 citizens from a previous figure of 56.4. Similarly, the rate of rapes also nosedived by 8.1%, marking a significant and substantial reduction in these violent crimes that year.
Considering the data for aggravated assaults, the rate went up from 2,082.2 incidents per 100,000 individuals to 2,094.4, indicating a 0.6% escalation. Robberies, on the other hand, plummeted sharply by 22.3%, coming down to 351.3 per 100,000 from the previous 452.
In terms of property crime, burglary rates witnessed a 19.2% plunge, falling from 1,091.9 incidences per 100,000 inhabitants to 881.9. Concurrently, the rate for theft offenses also noted an 11% slide, coming down to 4,566 thefts per 100,000 from the earlier figure of 5,129.8.
Moreover, motor vehicle theft rates fell significantly by a staggering 37.3%. This seems to reflect the widespread efforts to curb automobile theft. The rate dropped from 2,565.3 per 100,000 residents to 1,607.3, thereby signifying an enormous decrease.
When compared, the trends and numbers presented by the City of Memphis and those calculated by the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, are very similar, with the exception of the aggravated assault category which shows a considerable discrepancy. For instance, in 2024, the city count reported 7,649 incidents of this type, by contrast, the TBI stated a hefty 12,881 incidents.
This difference primarily arises from the difference in classification. The municipal figures are incident-based – meaning that if one assault has multiple victims, it’s reported as a single incident. Conversely, TBI figures are victim-based and the previously mentioned scenario would be counted as individual assaults per victim.
These varying measurements are primarily what drive the differences between publicly presented data from the local government and statistics calculated by the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation. This disparity is highlighted when we look at the violent crime categories (murder, aggravated assault, and robbery) reported by the city and the TBI.
Particularly, the total violent crime rate as reported by the city is 1,616.6 incidents per 100,000 people while, according to the TBI, it is 2,485.5. Similarly, the city’s records suggest a 7.4% drop in these crimes, while the TBI’s calculations show a slightly lesser decline of 4.1%.
Despite the contrast, both datasets seem to agree on one overall trend. Both indicate that violent crime rates experienced a modest shift towards the average in 2024, while property crimes showed a larger improvement. This general shift reflects a definite reduction compared to the alarming crime statistics recorded just a year before in 2023.
Despite the reduction in the crime rates, it’s worth mentioning that the current levels of both violent and property crime continue to surpass rates recorded prior to 2016 with the sole exception of rape and burglary rates. However, several crime categories are starting to reach levels observed during the pandemic era.
For instance, murder rates in 2024 dropped beneath pre-pandemic levels while the rate for aggravated assaults stooped lower than the figures recorded during the pandemic in 2021. While other violent crimes did increase, the rates remained less than 10% above their 2021 counterparts. Property crimes, contrastingly, continue to record an elevated level, with a figure approximately 27% higher compared to 2021.