Polls forecasting presidential elections have been known for their inconsistencies. However, an unexpected source, a bakery in Hatboro, has amassed an impressive track record in foretelling the future leaders of America. Lochel’s, situated on S. York Road, has been conducting a unique cookie poll every election year since 2008. This involves selling cookies, each designated with a candidate’s name, with their sales reflecting a prediction. Kathy Lochel, the proprietor of the bakery along with her husband, proudly states, ‘Our cookie measure has accurately predicted the outcome of three out of the last four elections.’
‘We got it right with Obama, Obama, and then Trump’, Kathy proudly recounted. In the 2020 race, even though they sold more Trump cookies (31,804) compared to Biden cookies (5,550), the outcome didn’t match their prediction. However, this aberration hasn’t dampened their spirit. The bakery launched this election’s cookie poll just after the first Trump/Biden debate. Trump gained an early lead, and neither Biden nor his running mate, Kamala Harris, managed to equal his popularity in the delightful cookie war.
The numbers are telling. As of the morning of September 17, Lochel’s sold 8,209 red Trump cookies against a meager 580 blue Harris cookies. In the heavily Democratic Montgomery County, this number difference might appear bizarre. There are, however, reasons to justify this discrepancy. Kathy explains, ‘Trump promoted our cookie poll on his platform, Truth Social, creating a wave of support. Consequently, Fox News and the New York Post amplified the narrative further.’
This media coverage led to a surge in demand, and Kathy’s bakery prepared to meet it. ‘We now have 7,000 Trump cookies on standby, ready to be shipped,’ she informed. On the other side, Harris mustered just ten orders. Kathy points out that the customers contributing to these sales are not confined to Montgomery County but are spread out all over the country. From customers driving down from Connecticut due to a delay in mail services to Bucks County turning red, Kathy maintains these factors contribute to the disproportionate sales figures.
The first presidential cookie poll hosted by Lochel’s in 2008 was relatively unknown, confined to a group of regulars and staff. As Kathy recalls, ‘No one really noticed the Obama/Romney poll, nor its resurgence in 2012.’ It was in the year of 2016 that the popularity of the bakery’s unique poll took an upswing, becoming an election staple in Hatboro.
In 2020, Lochel’s experienced a remarkable year with their cookie poll, the highlight of which was a surprise visit from the then-president’s son, Eric Trump. For the year 2024, they’ve already achieved a new milestone, with Trump and Harris cookies being shipped to every state in the country. The most common shipment destinations, listed in order of numbers, are Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, California, and New Jersey.
Kathy fondly talks about the growing popularity of the cookie poll, ‘I’ve even had requests to ship them overseas! Unfortunately, that’s not something I can currently manage.’ Interestingly, known personalities from the entertainment realm, including a news anchor and an actor, have demanded Lochel’s cookies. However, Kathy respectfully declines to reveal their identity for privacy reasons.
Behind the scenes, Lochel’s bakery is a hive of activity. Boxes stacked high at the back of the shop harbor over a thousand cookie orders set to be dispatched in the subsequent weeks. Customers have proved to be so supportive that they have volunteered their services to help with packing and shipping the cookies during this busy period.
Kathy, filled with confidence, shares her anticipation for this election’s cookery, ‘I think we’ll sell more cookies this year than we did in 2020, which was our biggest year.’ As for the prediction, she chooses to remain neutral, ‘At this stage in 2020, we sold less than 1,000 cookies for each candidate,’ she reflected. Who comes out on top of this sweet race to the presidency is a reveal we eagerly anticipate.