The Democrats’ struggle to maintain control of the Senate illustrates their deep-seated challenges. Should Kamala Harris somehow secure the presidency, she may face an unyielding Republican stronghold with undeniable influence over her selected cabinet, legislative propositions, and court picks. Imagine Harris needing to assuage Republicans in selecting suitable candidates for her administration—an unenviable predicament for someone with such significantly divergent political beliefs.
The apparent honeymoon period Democrats enjoyed during the early days of Barack Obama’s presidency, when several of his cabinet choices were promptly approved due to Democrats’ comfortable majority in the Senate, seems almost an alien concept now. Today, Democrats barely grasp onto power, and any potential Harris presidency would find no such support or expedience.
The precarious state of the Democrats’ control is well-illustrated with Senator Jon Tester of Montana, whose odds of reelection in the starkly red state are concerning. His potential loss and the improbability of any surprising wins in less-contested races could see Republicans seizing Senate control, setting the stage for Harris to trip over her own shoes right from the start.
There is a stark difference between maintaining a slim grip on power and conceding the Senate to the Republicans. Not only would it be a loss of control, but it puts the Democrats’ agenda in serious jeopardy. Analysts are currently leaning toward a Republican takeover, given a political layout that was stacked against Democrats from the start and seems to only get tougher.
Republicans are almost certain to seize the vacant West Virginia seat left by Senator Joe Manchin III, and with Tester falling behind in Montana—a state infamous for its diehard support of former President Donald J. Trump—the Senate majority may be knocked right out of Democrats’ hands.
Other Democratic hopefuls in battleground states, like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Jacky Rosen in Nevada, seem to manage to stay ahead of their Republican rivals. Still, a new Democratic presidency facing a Republican Senate is a peculiar scenario. Traditionally, a White House victory has brought Congress in line—at least initially. This alignment is looking increasingly like a distant dream for the Democrats.
Despite the worries, Democrats display a somewhat misguided determination to re-elect Tester, with some even promising to support him to the end, regardless of the dire poll projections. Despite the optimism, Democrats are starting to divert resources to traditionally Republican states like Texas and Florida. Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have shown a hint of vulnerability, providing alternate pathways towards a Senate majority.
The stakes could not be higher, especially as the notion of sympathy for a newly elected president evaporates. Today, voters from the defeated party anticipate their elected officials to challenge the winner, not support them. Should Democrats lose their Senate majority, they would forfeit their instrumental committee chairmanships.
With Republicans at the helm, Harris would be forced to reassess her cabinet appointments drastically. Nostalgic are the days where a president had the liberty to select their preferred candidates. In the new era, any potential appointments will undergo rigorous G.O.P scrutiny.
Regarding lifetime appointments to federal courts, the situation could become increasingly complex; thus far, Democrats have appointed 213 judges during the Biden administration. Republicans would be eager to halt this momentum and meticulously examine any of Harris’s selections, following a slew of confirmations they had previously opposed.
The Supreme Court stands as another tricky battlefield. Any nominee presented by Harris, in the event of a vacancy, would have to be significantly more centrist than someone she might choose with a Democratic Senate majority. The rigorous review process and subsequent negotiations would reflect a discernible power shift.
Hypothetically, a Republican-controlled senate in tandem with a Harris presidency could invigorate more moderate Republicans like Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. They might collaborate with Democrats on select issues and perhaps even endorse a few Democratic nominees. However, the hurdle of the 60-vote filibuster and the task of initiating legislation for floor debate would still loom large.
While a Democratic White House co-existing with a Republican Senate is just one possibility, it’s a far more likely one than a Trump White House and a Democratic Senate. Regardless of the outcome, the narrow margins in both the House and the Senate may lead to a fraught legislative atmosphere. Unfortunately for the Democrats, they need to retain control in the Senate to replicate any of their past successes in a divided Congress.