Kamala Harris, the current vice president, seems to have made a surprise advancement in the predicted 2024 presidential race in light of the previous week’s Democratic National Convention, as per the most recent polling from the Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab). However, given Harris’s track record, this surge in popularity has left many scratching their heads.
In a recent study that came out on Tuesday, the PolCom Lab in collaboration with Mainstreet Research USA, allege a 4 point jump in debt-ridden America’s heart for Kamala Harris over the previous President Donald Trump. The curious factor here was that out of the 929 polled, Harris seemingly swayed 47 percent, while Trump got support from 43 percent. The typical margin of error for such polls is 3.2 percent, and thus this lead of Harris is treading on thin ground.
In a similar pattern, the vice president had the same four points difference over Trump among the likely voters surveyed by PolCom Lab, with her reportedly gaining support from 49 percent as opposed to Trump’s 45 percent. It’s difficult for many to process such results as these pose an alarming increase in numbers for Harris who was trailing Trump by 5 points just a month prior.
Information from the polling taken during Harris’s announcement of her 2024 presidential race indicated a different picture. Back in July, she was way below Trump by 5 points (49 to 44 percent). Her recent inexplicable growth in popularity raises some unanswered questions.
Now, we have a new twist to the tale where post-DNC, they claim Harris and Trump to have being tied among U.S. voters at a dead-even 46 percent each. Moreover, this asymmetric shift in support is more prevalent among self-proclaimed independent voters involved in the PolCom Lab’s polling.
The voter demographic of independents, who theoretically align with neither of the main political ideologies, showed a peculiar wave towards Kamala Harris. However, thinking people might question this alleged sudden shift of 48 percent support for Harris against Trump’s 35 percent from the earlier close race of 45 percent to 43 percent.
Recent polling data suggesting Harris’ popularity surge seems strangely timed with the Democratic National Convention event, wherein she was officially announced as the candidate alongside her possible vice-presidential running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. These polls also claim that Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s suspension of his own presidential campaign and subsequent endorsement for Trump had little to no effect.
Kennedy’s unexpected endorsement had insignificant to null effect on Harris’s bragged about, weeks-long traction, which perplexes many. A Monday poll by Angus Reid Global puts Harris, rather dubiously, at a 5-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 42 percent).
People may not entirely trust the Morning Consult poll that was out this week, holding similar findings where Harris is seen 4 points ahead of Trump (48 percent to 44 percent), inexplicably maintaining her lead. This same poll whimsically suggests that post-DNC, voters suddenly hold a formidably positive view of Tim Walz by an increased 3 percent.
The alleged polling claims that the vice-presidential candidate, Tim Walz’s favorability jumped to 42 percent up from the previous 39 percent post the DNC, an incoherent growth which keeps many wondering.
However, critiquing Walz’s overall career, this sudden spike of approval, especially after the pairing with the much-debated Kamala Harris, seems implausible and trivial. To consider this a ‘favorable view’ of the candidate could be far-fetched.
Tuesday’s reports state that Harris is leading Trump by a thin margin of average 3.5 points across national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. However, given the contradictory trends and the inherent flaws of such short-term polling, one must question the reliability of these figures and their potential influence on the voter’s perception.
People need to take these results with a pinch of salt, concluding anything concrete from these swinging stats would be premature, and might as well wait for time to reveal the true sentiment of the American public.