Kamala Harris’s performance with Black and Latino voters has seen a slump compared to earlier Democrat presidential candidates. This topic became the center of campaign discussions following a poll conducted by the New York Times/Siena that showed her support from Hispanic voters at about only 57 percent, which is significantly lower than Joe Biden’s estimated 63 percent from the 2020 elections. For Black voters, she stood at 78 percent, which was 15 points lower than Biden’s last year.
David Leonhardt offered a potential explanation for this contrast, revolving around identity politics and the issue of immigration. He posits that the Democratic Party’s decline is due to its miscalculation of the American electorate’s attitude, especially on topics of race and ethnicity. Leonhardt suggests that the party has overestimated the attraction of progressive gestures on race-related issues and has overlooked the concerns many nonwhite voters have around issues like crime and illegal immigration.
According to him, the Biden administration has only amplified the consequences of this misunderstanding by easing the regulations at the U.S.-Mexico border and seeming to encourage a massive influx of new inhabitants into the country. However, this storyline faces many issues.
For starters, it’s important to note that Democrats appear to comprehend that the subject of crime is a significant concern for Black voters. After all, the presidential nominee from the Democratic party is a Black woman, Kamala Harris, who has nearly 30 years of experience as a prosecutor and has authored a book on crime reduction. Moreover, Joe Biden’s presidency has prioritized additional funding for police departments over seeking criminal justice reforms.
The key contention made by Leonhardt regarding Biden’s ‘inviting immigration policies’ inciting a crisis at the border is worth examining. There has been a noticeable increase in the number of people transiting the U.S.-Mexico borderline applying for asylum during Biden’s term. However, he fails to acknowledge that the influx at the border originally escalated during Trump’s presidency.
The data illustrates that at two distinct stages, spring of 2019 and the end of 2020, the number of apprehensions for illegally entering the country at the southern border exceeded any figures from the tenure of Trump’s Democratic predecessor. The number of repatriations under Biden’s administration is already the highest for any singular presidential period since the time of George W. Bush.
Leonhardt himself admits that “Harris is still the favorite among the majority of voters of color.” The Democratic party, often seen as a symbol of pluralism, has been rewarded by voters for adopting this stance, particularly during Trump’s reign. This ‘brand’ image, tied strongly to a reputation for being widely pro-immigrant, may not be easily discardable.
In conclusion, voters generally favor inclusivity, decency, and ‘order’. The weight given to these considerations fluctuates based on the ruling party and the direct exposure to migrant crisis symbols such as tent settlements or related news.
The sense of progressive, multicultural democracy that the public gets from the Democratic party resonates with them. There is a considerable portion of American voters who lean in this direction and they’ve consistently demonstrated their potential as a solid base for a triumphant coalition.