It appears a potential upset could be brewing for the future Presidential aspirations of Vice President Kamala Harris. Observers have noticed a political pattern emerging in Philadelphia, a stronghold of the Democratic party located in the crucial state of Pennsylvania. They’re seeing a gradual lean towards the Republican party, and notably, towards Donald Trump. We spoke with Gabriel Lopez from the Kensington neighborhood, a lifelong Democrat who voted for Hillary Clinton back in 2016, but has since had a change of heart.
Lopez revealed his future voting intentions to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Despite his traditionally Democrat-oriented upbringing, his vote in the upcoming elections will go to Trump. He explains his reasons: ‘Folks in our party warned that Trump would hurt the economy, but here’s the deal: he already served four years as President. And you know what? Our taxes were lower.’ It is clear that Lopez, along with others, is tired of politics as usual and appreciates a change of pace.
The sentiments shared by Lopez mirror the growing discontentment within his community towards the Democratic party. He tells the Inquirer that the promises made by Democrats to better his living conditions and those of his neighbors have largely been unfulfilled. This is a glaring issue they face daily, especially with the surge in prices they’ve experienced over the years.
Lopez’s story could very well represent the quandary the Democrats face in Pennsylvania. Traditionally, working-class Philadelphians have consistently supported the Democratic party. However, this support has somewhat wavered over the years, and these citizens have been increasingly drawn to the right side of politics.
One of the more profound issues causing discontent among Philadelphia’s working-class voters is the hike in prices in recent years. Many in these communities have borne the brunt of this issue and, rightly or wrongly, place the blame squarely on the Democrats’ shoulders.
This shift in voter sentiment is shaping up to be a major obstacle for Harris, particularly considering the crucial electoral role Pennsylvania could play. Four years ago, President Joe Biden just scraped past Trump, claiming victory by around 80,000 votes.
Interestingly, while Pennsylvania went to Trump in 2016, Philadelphia chose to back Clinton. It’s worth noting that Trump managed to secure only 15% of votes in Philadelphia, while Clinton dominated with 82%. The tides, however, began to shift in 2020.
In the most recent 2020 election, Trump managed to increase his share of the vote in Philadelphia from 15% to 18%, while Biden took home 81% of the share. Despite the increase, Pennsylvania ultimately favored Biden. The growing sentiment towards Trump was most noticeable within working-class communities.
In 2020, the Democratic party was dealt a blow when they lost their grip on several neighborhoods marked by high rates of non-college educated individuals and endemic poverty levels. This was a marked change in political orientation for the working-class districts.
In order to secure a win in Pennsylvania, Harris must rally large numbers of votes in Philadelphia, traditionally a Democratic bastion. This is due to the fact that other districts in Pennsylvania often lean Republican.
Surprisingly, 20% of Pennsylvania’s Democrats reside in Philadelphia. This signifies Harris needs to capture the loyalty and vote of as many of these individuals as possible. Yet, a considerable challenge lies ahead.
Her campaign is likely to be hampered by the brewing discontent that started causing ripples in Philadelphia’s political landscape since 2016. In the 2020 election, Biden underperformed compared to Clinton’s performance in 2016 in 41 out of 66 of Philadelphia’s political wards.
Although Biden managed to eek out a victory in Pennsylvania, he failed to win by a substantial margin. Should the trend of shifting working-class allegiances continue, and if they’re won over by Trump’s appeal, Harris might find herself in for an unexpected turn of events.
The political currents in Pennsylvania seem to be changing, and those changes are not in the favor of the Democrats. A failure to regain the trust of the working-class voters could lead to unfavorable outcomes for the Vice President.
As things currently stand, the undercurrents of change hint towards a political map that’s set to be redrawn, one neighborhood at a time. Philadelphia, a stronghold for the Democrats, might just be the turning point that either leads to victory or defeat in the Pennsylvania battle.
On the forthcoming election night, depending on whether these trends persist or dissipate, Harris might find the course of her political trajectory significantly impacted. One thing’s for sure: for her, all eyes should be on the working-class voters of Philadelphia.