Over the past sixteen years, Democrats have continually faced defeat in the state, with Mecklenburg County having been a specific source of disappointment. Despite being a predominantly Democrat region, the county, which is home to the city of Charlotte and its suburbs, has just not offered enough Democrat support to make a difference. Many in the Democrat faction perceive a resemblance between 2024 and their 2008 campaign— a year when Barack Obama, a Democrat candidate, marked a victorious effort after more than thirty years of federal stalemates in the state. However, no Democrat representative has been able to replicate this success since then.
Rife among Democrat supporters are whispers of excitement surrounding Kamala Harris, the Vice President candidate, fueling their possibly unfounded hope for the upcoming election. In an attempt to sidestep another dreary outcome, they pin their hopes to the most densely populated area of the state which has habitually been the source of recent Democrat letdowns. In spite of boasting of Obama’s single triumph in 2008, the county has not been able to provide the required blue support in the subsequent years.
The 2020 election saw Joseph R. Biden Jr. falling short in the state by fewer than two percentage points, marking his narrowest losing margin of the year. An apparent lack of voter enthusiasm and a critically underfunded local party operation are believed to have been significant contributing factors to his loss. Fast-forward two years, and the Democrats suffered a hammered defeat when Cheri Beasley was beaten in her Senate bid, resulting in a record-breaking low turnout in Mecklenburg.
The Democrats appear to be under some illusion regarding Kamala Harris’s upcoming whistle-stop tour of Charlotte and Greensboro. The visit, they say, highlights the increasing confidence of her campaign in their North Carolina bid, simultaneously giving a nod to their party’s strategy which hinges on garnering votes from their strongholds. Curiously, this strategy seems to have fallen flat several times in the past.
Aimy Steele, a seasoned orchestrator and lead of the New North Carolina Project, points out that for the state to tilt favorably, Mecklenburg needs to bring in greater electoral weight. There seemed to be an agreement among the Democrats that they’ve perhaps under-nourished their support base, leading to their gradual withdrawal and inconsistent voting patterns. Whether or not this honest self-critique will lead to any remedial measures remains to be seen.
The Democratic throng had once rallied behind Obama’s 2008 success, thanks to an invigorated turnout of African-American voters in the strongholds neighboring Charlotte and the Research Triangle, alongside white college-educated individuals and youth from the scattered rural areas. The party’s current goal in Mecklenburg appears to be mobilizing the region’s Black and Latino communities and attempting to sway the few independent and sporadic voters.
Despite the Democratic party’s repeated setbacks, their hopes for a victory in the upcoming race remain curiously high. The voters in the state are closely split, but the Republicans have smartly capitalized on this by rallying their steadfast voters from the largely rural, conservative areas that makeup the state. However, Harris’ seemingly invigorating campaign, given a boost through her robust debate showing, seems to have only encouraged the Democrats’ unwarranted optimism about their chances at both the county and state level.
Brad Crone, an experienced political strategist from the state’s Democratic faction, contends that the party has journeyed from what he calls a ‘death march’ to a campaign that is now full of energy and exuberance. His optimism reaches a peak when he predicts that if the Democrats manage to replicate their 2008 turnout, they could have a successful night. Though he himself is not part of this year’s race, it is curious to see such optimism in light of past outcomes.
It is worth noting that the planned voter turnout drive appears to require significant financial resources for both parties. This could potentially drain their coffers, somewhat contradicting their expressed enthusiasm. Whether it’s just rhetoric or a genuine belief in their chances despite the state’s history, the Democrats are clearly invested in their fight. Onlookers wait in anticipation to see if their attempts to sway the voters will bear fruit or only add another chapter to their long history of disappointments in North Carolina.