Following the recent election, it’s evident that the topic of Jewish voting patterns has drawn considerable attention, offering something to celebrate for both the Republican and Democrat parties. Known to make up nearly two percent of the American populace, the Jewish community is notorious for potentially skewing poll outcomes. Post Nov. 5 polling data has illuminated the political inclinations of Jewish voters. Unsurprisingly, Kamala Harris received support from approximately 63-71% of Jewish voters; however, it was President Donald Trump who increased his share of the Jewish vote compared to the 2020 elections.
Historically, the Jewish community has shown predictable loyalties towards Democratic candidates, often channeling over two-thirds of their votes towards Democratic presidential nominees. Despite this pattern, the discourse leading to the 2024 Election Day hinted at the possibility that a significant share of American Jews might pledge their allegiance to the Republican party. Notably, the 1980 election remains a memorable event for Republicans, marking their peak support among the Jewish community, thanks to Ronald Reagan, who secured approximately 40% of the Jewish vote.
Sentiments swirled around the possibility of a political tide shifting following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, which triggered widespread criticism of Israel from various progressive organizations. Unfazed by naysayers, President Trump confidently forecasted that he would secure a substantial 40% of the Jewish vote. Conversely, Jewish democrats placed their trust in polling results that showed consistent support within this demographic.
However, as the countdown to the election day dwindled, an unsettling wave of doubts crept in, questioning the resilience of the Jewish support for the Democrats. The aftermath of Trump’s triumph over Kamala Harris presented an opportunity to gauge the extent of Jewish support through several polls. Even though the polls reported divergent figures, they all pointed in one direction. A recently concluded poll showcased that Harris had secured 71% of the Jewish vote against 26% for Trump. This indicates that while a significant majority of Jews still swing democratic, their unwavering loyalty may be faltering.
Further investigation into the national shift in the electorate portrayed that the scale didn’t tip in favor of President Trump due to an influx of new Republican votes. Conversely, the reason behind the transition was Kamala Harris losing a substantial number of Democratic votes. Polling undertaken by GBAO strategies divulged that Harris led Trump among Jewish voters 71% to 26%, an imposing 45-point lead. Yet, this was 11 points less than the 56-point lead the Democratic Party enjoyed in 2020 when Jewish voters overwhelmingly favored Joe Biden over Trump, 77% to 21%.
In yet another survey led by the Cooperative Election Study from Harvard University, it was substantiated that during the recent elections, Harris lead Trump among Jewish voters with a margin of 63% to 36%, a 27-point spread. Contrarily, in 2020, the poll highlighted that Jewish voters preferred Biden over Trump by a percentage of 69% to 30%, a daunting 39-point difference.
An analysis conducted by The Associated Press alongside Fox, by means of online polling powered by the University of Chicago, discovered that Jews favored Harris over Trump by a margin of 66% to 32%, a 34-point spread. The poll conducted the previous year revealed that Biden defeated Trump by a ratio of 69% to 30%,with a margin of 39 points among American Jews.
Crucially, these polls also delved into how Jewish voters viewed the stance of the candidates on Israel, which potentially explains President Trump’s gain in the Jewish vote. While only 7% believed that Harris would uphold a pro-Israel agenda more than Biden, a significant 48% expected Trump would be more pro-Israel. Indeed, Trump’s strong pro-Israel stance seemed to resonate with Jewish voters and further encouraged their shift towards the Republican party.
However, when it came to other issues of high priority for Jewish voters, President Trump didn’t fare as well. Harris, on the other hand, appeared to be closely associated with being a strong advocate for abortion rights, safeguarding Social Security and Medicare, managing climate change, and preserving democracy, all of which didn’t seem to translate into a compelling vote winner.
The favorability scores among Jewish voters, as uncovered by the poll, revealed a jarring gap between Harris and Trump. Harris secured an approval rate of 68% as opposed to 32% disapproval, while Trump’s favorable and unfavorable ratings stood at 24% and 76% respectively.
A fascinating relationship was unearthed associating Jewish voters with the frequency of their synagogue visits. The disparity in synagogue attendance was clearly tied to the voting preferences. Notably cued from the election results, Jews who rarely attended religious services tended to vote for Harris (81%), while those who regularly attended (more than once a month) veered towards Trump (61%).
The actual voting patterns from heavily Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, in places like Crown Heights, Brooklyn, and Teaneck, New Jersey, seem to align with these audience profiling insights, showing a notable preference for President Trump. It’s clear, therefore, that within these particular communities, Trump’s pro-Israel stance and broad Republican values found firmer footing than within the broader Jewish demographic.
All in all, while Democrats, particularly Kamala Harris, still appear to command a significant chunk of Jewish voters, the tide seems to be subtly shifting. The increasing support for President Trump in communities more actively practicing their faith is a testament to the sway that policies, particularly around Israel, hold over voter sentiment. It’s also a clear sign that steadfast Democratic loyalties among Jewish voters may waver in the face of effective Republican outreach.