As we reflect on the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term, the narrative is one of disappointment rather than progress. The Republican party is seemingly grappling with deepening concerns among the American electorate regarding economic issues, most notably, inflation. A telling statistic from the Winning the Issues post-election survey reveals that 30% of those surveyed believed inflation was improving. Now, however, a mere 17% remain optimistic, with a majority of 57% underlining their conviction that it is deteriorating.
Although inflation rate data from April 10 suggested a decrease from 2.8% in February to 2.4% in March, this positive news was usurped by a flurry of controversial decisions by President Trump. His contentious stances on immigration, misguided tariff policies, plunging markets, and a series of controversial issues have shifted the spotlight away from any potential economic progress.
This unnerving display has clearly sowed seeds of doubt regarding the Republican’s ability to manage economic matters, as their advantage begins to erode just as the gaze turns towards the 2026 election. Unlike previous times, independents seem to distance themselves from the Republican party, muddying the political waters further.
However, Democrats mustn’t rush to celebrate. The political pendulum hasn’t swung in their favor. The stagnant post-election rating of the Democrats betrays their persistent adherence to the very economic and social policies responsible for their downfall. As some Democratic leaders call for even more progressive policies, their political standing remains eerily static.
The most recent election saw a preference for Republicans to handle inflation by 12%. Far from celebrating a Democratic revival, the current shrinking margin to 3% points towards a lack in Republican credibility rather than a surge in Democratic trustworthiness. The post-election survey found the Democratic standing at 40%, a number that hasn’t budged since.
The credibility crisis extends to the Republicans as well, as a loss of support from independents sees them falling 9 points, from 52% to 43%. These pivotal voters who once favored Republicans by 13 points now display a balanced preference, offering no advantages to either party. The drop in support for Democrats by one point only complicates the situation more.
But this may only be the tip of the iceberg for Republicans. On the broad issue of the economy, Republicans went from enjoying an 11-point lead in the 2024 election to barely making the cut with a 1-point lead in the present time. Key to this decline were independent voter’s shifted loyalties, going from being firmly behind Republicans to actually opposing them.
Taxation, another pivotal subject, presented a bleak picture as well. What was once a 6-point lead in Republicans’ favor has now been diminished to a 3-point advantage. This declining trend reveals an emerging challenge, one where the majority of voters – 53% – assert that Trump is failing to address pressing issues like economy and inflation.
The sentiment grows even stronger among independents, with 60% asserting that Trump is neglecting key economic issues. Curiously, 59% believe he has placed undue attention on the subject of tariffs, raising the question if he has misjudged policy priorities.
One crucial aspect of the tariffs issue is a prevalent belief among 70% of voters that such measures can exacerbate inflation by raising product costs. Add to this that 64% see tariffs as taxes, and it paints a picture of widespread concern, not comfort.
More than half of the electorate, 54%, anticipate that tariffs will adversely affect the economy, a view that only 19% dispute. The real-world consequences have already begun to unravel. An alarming 70% indicate that their retirement plans and savings have been impacted by the recent stock market turbulence.
It is hard to ignore that 71% of voters think that middle-class Americans have seen a dramatic decrease in their retirement plans and personal savings. This has fostered a climate of apprehension and dissatisfaction with the administration’s economic policies. Claims that only the top 10% income bracket has lost money fail to win over voters, with a staggering 84% dismissing it.
Looking ahead, only 27% are confident they will recover their market losses by year’s end. These economic uncertainties and the perceived mishandling of tariffs reflect poorly on Trump, adding fuel to the scepticism.
Trump’s tariff policies, with a disapproval rate of 58% among all voters and 65% among independents, seem to be doing more harm than good. The picture grows even bleaker when considering his economic job approval, which mirrors the poor ratings of his predecessor, Biden.
What is illuminating is that despite Trump’s promise for a departure from Biden’s policies, his economic approval rating tells a different story. Biden’s economic job approval was 39% positive and 56% negative, numbers that Trump has managed to exactly replicate, revealing a lack of confidence from independents in his economic management.
The Republican party, following their sweeping victory, had been given a strong mandate to rein in inflation and restore the economy. But with their focus straying away from these centric issues, the negative impact on the middle-class has only deepened. It’s high time that they reorient their focus towards the very issues that led them to victory, in a bid to regain their economic credibility.