The stage is set, and the battle lines are drawn, with Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading over former President Donald Trump in a fresh national poll. Despite her party’s nomination and all the glitz and glamour of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), Harris barely scrapes through in her shallow race to the Oval Office. One has to wonder whether this leadership race retains any credibility when Biden’s departure only transpired a little over a month ago.
These past weeks have seen an excruciatingly close contest between Harris and Trump, the candidate from the Republican Party. Yet, some national aggregates, presumably those with fondness for the status quo, show Harris leading, even though Trump and Harris are neck and neck in battleground states that usually provide a clear insight into the trajectory to the Presidency. This unsteadiness begs the question – where does the truth lie?
Breaking down the poll data by party lines only serves to further expose the inherent bias. Suppose one considers the claimed support Harris enjoys, a whopping 95 percent of documented Democrats and a mere 38 percent of independents, and a virtually insignificant 2 percent of Republicans. The rest, comprising of one-third independents, 95 percent of Republicans, and a mere 3 percent of Democrats support Trump. Does this poll not seem skewed?
In stark contradiction to the poll by the FDU, Rasmussen Reports, a respected name in the field of polling, released a poll that places Trump in the lead over Harris by 3 percentage points – 49 to Harris’s 46 percent. This survey, sourced from 1,893 likely voters, was conducted across multiple days. Undoubtedly, this report introducing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points takes us back to the drawing board.
Some national aggregates desperately cling onto the narrative of a Harris lead. RealClearPolitics asserts a minimal Harris lead of 1.5 percentage points, placing her at a precarious 48.4 percent to Trump’s close 46.9 percent. Similarly, The New York Times, a popular proponent of the Democratic agenda, gives Harris a weak 2-percentage point lead, that’s 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent.
A grimmer picture of the contest is painted by other aggregates like FiveThirtyEight, another partizan entity, suggesting a margin of 3.6 percentage points in favor of Harris – 47.2 to Trump’s 43.6 percent. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, yet another outlet on the champions’ side, puts Harris ahead at 48 percent, with Trump at 43.7 percent. How reliable are these aggregates when their updates and results are as inconsistent as the weather?
The frequent update cycle of aggregate polls, supposedly meant to reflect the ‘real-time’ political climate, barely resemble the waves crashing on the shoreline – chaotic and random. The common claim of these polls to act as an accurate ‘temperature check’ and gauge popular vote support is as absurd as expecting an accurate weather forecast by looking at the sea!
The wavy pattern of these national aggregates does raise serious doubts about the relevance and efficacy of these polls. After all, they’re nothing more than opinions from a select group of people, portrayed as the ‘national voice.’ The accuracy of these polls is a lingering question, especially considering the weight they carry.
Furthermore, while these polls may show the supposed public sentiment, they do little to predict the outcome of the 270 Electoral College votes needed for a candidate to secure the White House. It’s almost as if these polls are more concerned with sensationalism and less with providing a realistic snapshot of the potential outcome of the Presidential race.
Even more confusing is how the very same pools manage to yield such wildly different results. Are we to believe these inconsistent figures are to be trusted? Where does the truth lie amidst the cacophony of these polling voices?
In conclusion, it seems the pollsters and aggregators would have us believe a carefully crafted narrative, one that places Harris in the lead. However, it’s important to stay grounded and remember the binary nature of these statistics – they swing just as swiftly in the other direction.
Given the element of unpredictability and the skewed perspectives of the polling farms, it’s anyone’s game until the final day. Either way, it’s clear that real consensus and popularity cannot be defined merely by polls.
The next Presidential race will indeed be an exciting and challenging one. And while the polls strive to narrate one story, the people might very well be scripting a different tale. The final chapter of this race is yet to be written.