Exploring the complexities behind the outcomes of the 2024 presidential battle is a task that has mystified many media houses. Yet, the absence of authoritative data has left everyone in the dark. The practice of leveraging exit polls to predict election outcomes is an increasingly futile endeavor; they are inherently flawed and do not reflect election day realities, despite what the mainstream media may have you believe.
Their utilization is merely a way for channels to fill air time as they await the results from across the nation. Yet, the narrative is shifting due to the advent of new data from the Cooperative Election Study. This report presents a vastly different perspective, one that seemingly highlights the nuanced roles of various demographics in decision making.
According to the document, approximately 22% of American adults identify with an evangelical denomination. Within this demographic, White evangelicals make up 17% and non-White evangelicals account for just over 5%, with 38% of them being Black and 28% Hispanic. Evaluating the voting behavior of these groups in the last five terms is insightful.
Unsurprisingly, evangelicals have been main pillars of Donald Trump’s support system since 2016. Examining the 2024 elections adds more weight to this claim: the former president enjoyed significant increases in support amongst these voters, with their backing growing from 70% to 75% over the span of three election cycles.
Comparatively, Democrats have been struggling to make any significant impact amongst evangelical voters. Their prime year was back in 2012, when Obama managed to secure nearly 30% of this demographic’s votes. However, Harris underperformed in this field, securing a mere 23% in comparison to Biden’s 25%, mirroring Hillary Clinton’s performance in 2016.
Zooming deeper into these numbers reveals that White evangelicals form the core of Trump’s loyal supporters. In the 2016 elections, Trump’s vote share was not outstandingly different from McCain’s in 2008 or Romney’s in 2012, hovering around the 77% mark. However, in 2020, he managed to rally a whopping 81% of this demographic’s votes.
Trump set another record in 2024, with an impressive 83% backing from White evangelicals – a previously unheard-of figure. Yet, a fascinating shift can be seen in the demographic of non-White evangelical voters. Traditionally, Republicans have always had a tough time courting this demographic’s favor.
Reflecting on the 2008 elections, Obama held an 18-point advantage amongst non-White evangelicals, which he expanded significantly in the subsequent years. In 2012, this vote group was mainly democratic with a D+30 distribution, diminishing only slightly to D+25 in 2016. However, in 2020, Trump was able to claw back some support, raising the Republican occupancy to 40% and cutting the Democratic lead to 18 points.
A dramatic shift then happened in 2024, as non-White evangelical votes were virtually divided equally amongst the competing parties. Votes were distributed at 49% for Harris and 48% for Trump. The elections witnessed a significant loss for Harris in that she dropped at least 10 points with this particular group.
Despite continued delusions from some media outlets, Biden and the Democrats have struggled to make a mark in religious circles, particularly among the non-White evangelicals, while Trump continued to grow his influence. These events go to show that democrats and, indeed, Harris are not as favored among these groups as they love to believe. The 2024 election results could not have made that fact any clearer.
It is worth noting that the Democratic party’s strategies and approaches are yet to resonate effectively with a significant number of evangelicals, cutting across different racial groups. Neglecting these figures would mean disregarding what could be a critical factor in understanding presidential election outcomes. But this is hardly surprising when considering the Democrats’ failed track record in addressing the needs and concerns of this demographic.
The 2024 election figures underscore a critical fact: Democrats, particularly Biden and Harris, have consistently struggled to make substantial headway with evangelical voters, a group that continues to be a central support base for Trump. Rather than reflect on their inadequate strategies, Democrats angrily dismiss these facts with various justifications.
In conclusion, the Cooperative Election Study’s insights into the voting preferences of evangelicals could be a significant game-changer in understanding the political landscape. It is clear that Trump has made landmark strides with these voters, while Harris, following in the footsteps of Biden and her predecessors, continues to falter.