As Kamala Harris gets her campaign for the presidency warmed up, her gaze must land upon the pages of history with trepidation. Not since 1988, when George H.W. Bush managed to step from Vice President to President, has anyone successfully made this transition. Before him, aspirants such as Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968 and Al Gore in 2000 all tried and failed amidst a myriad of national challenges and controversies.
Each vice presidential candidate invariably wrestled with two common issues: the popularity of their administrative co-lead, the President, and their relationship with this formidable figure. For example, in the ascendancy of George H.W. Bush, an ineffective and aloof Democrat, Michael Dukakis, was presented to voters for judgment. Unsurprisingly, the Republicans’ characterization of Dukakis hit home hard, securing Bush’s victory.
Certainly, Bush’s path was also smoothed by a thriving economy and resolution of Cold War tensions. But unique was the fortune of having in President Ronald Reagan, a leader whose benevolence extended beyond the humdrum of politics, even after the daunting Iran-Contra scandal hit his ratings. Their camaraderie was evident through the campaign season, as Reagan actively endorsed Bush, his former rival.
Fast forward to 2000, where Al Gore enjoyed conditions akin to Bush’s. A buoyant economy, a peaceful nation and an unfortunately scandal-tainted, yet popular, President Bill Clinton by his side. Yet, Gore chose to distance himself from Clinton’s legacy, trying to establish himself as an independent force. This strategy was largely seen as a misstep, leading to a painfully close loss in a race determined by less than 1,000 votes in Florida.
Richard Nixon, similar to Gore, found himself unable to capitalize on President Dwight Eisenhower’s popularity. Despite the fear John F. Kennedy, Nixon’s opponent, held for Eisenhower’s endorsement of Nixon, it wasn’t to be. The complex Eisenhower-Nixon relationship, dating back from Eisenhower’s first run, was fraught with controversy from the Checkers scandal that cast a shadow on Nixon.
Nixon was two decades Eisenhower’s junior and the commanding ex-World War II leader often treated him more like an underling than an equal. When asked to identify Nixon’s influence on any significant decision, Eisenhower rather cheekily responded, ‘If you give me a week, I might think of one.’ In the possessive act of wanting to chart his own trajectory, Nixon refrained from seeking Eisenhower’s campaign assistance, a move that may have cast a dark cloud on his ambitions.
Shift in time to when Nixon stood against Lyndon B. Johnson’s vice president. Unlike any vice president before, Hubert Humphrey found his candidature entrammeled by his predecessor’s domineering presence. Humphrey’s presidential ambition was possible only because Johnson chose to bow out of the reelection race, putting him in a precarious position within a deeply fractured Democratic party.
The deeply opposed anti-war Democratic candidates Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy threatened Humphrey’s stand while his connection with Johnson’s heavily criticized, hawkish policies continued to limit his popularity. Though Humphrey finally diverged from Johnson’s hardline stance, calling for a halt to North Vietnam bombings, it was too late. He lost to Nixon, despite a close race in the popular vote.
Joe Biden, echoing Johnson, announced his decision to not seek a new term less than a year before Election Day. This was where Kamala Harris emerged, unlike Humphrey, swiftly consolidating Democratic support. She accepted her party’s nomination at a convention that thankfully did not experience the sort of unrest that marred Humphrey’s 1968 event in Chicago.
A recent AP-NORC survey revealed that roughly 4 in 10 Americans approved of Biden’s performance as president, a number that has remained steady since the preceding summer and strikingly similar to those of the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. Harris, hoping to replace another former vice president-turned-president, will undoubtedly bear in mind the paths of those before her. Notably, Eisenhower, Reagan and Clinton all held higher approval ratings than Biden, though they served in decidedly less contentious times.
Barack Obama, who had previously discouraged Biden’s presidential ambitions, waited until the Democratic primaries thin out before endorsing Biden. As President, Biden has been careful to include Harris in major policy discussions and dialogues with foreign heads. He has promised to be her strongest supporter and do whatever she needs for her election, though the specifics of his involvement are still in the works.
Despite Biden’s association with her campaign, Harris faces the challenge of a president who is hitting some rough patches in approval, indicative of the polarized times we live in. The strategies of predecessors in similar situations, such as Gore and Nixon, provide crucial lessons on potential pitfalls. The question now is whether Harris can leverage these historical lessons effectively.
The initial campaign scenario is promising with upcoming appearances by Biden and Harris together in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania. However, only time will tell how she navigates the treacherous path of political endorsement, personal branding and party unity in her bid to do what only one has successfully done since 1836 – transition from the Vice Presidency to the Presidency.