Former President Donald Trump’s appeal among the white-collar workforce remains unbeatable even as VP Kamala Harris tries to make headway in the Rust Belt. Her upcoming campaign addresses at the traditional Labor Day parades in Detroit and Pittsburgh reflects her scramble to garner their support. She might hope otherwise, but the demographic remains loyal to the right, largely immune to Democratic appeals since the Trump years.
Attempting to boost her position, Harris will be accompanied by President Joe Biden. There’s a hint of desperation in this brazen attempt to leverage her connection with the Democrats’ figurehead to sway the natural tendencies of this informed demographic. Interestingly, her sudden exercise appears as Biden’s popularity begins to wane.
The beginning of fall signals her desperation as she tries to make most of the dwindling summer. Since Biden’s unexpected endorsement, just six weeks have passed, but Harris already appears to be floundering. Her campaign started with a flurry of apparently warm receptions, particularly among youth and various minority groups.
The VP’s narrow lead over Trump in recent polls isn’t as momentous as it appears. Her rising favor is largely among those who were unenthusiastic about Biden, reaffirming her popularity remains chiefly within the Democratic factions rather than broadly across the political spectrum.
As Harris attempts the unprecedented feat of becoming America’s first Black female president, the question remains: can she cinch the support of the blue-collar demographic? Blue-collar workers are her Achilles heel, a segment that her boss Biden might have stood a somewhat better chance with.
Analysts seem convinced that Harris’s key strategy is to woo the working class. Basil Smikle gives a nod to this, referring to her ever-refined rhetoric and occasional union leader endorsement. Yet, Trump’s popularity among this crucial demographic remains robust, testament to his lasting appeal despite union politics.
Jared Abbott weighs in on the debate, noting that while Harris has tried to strike a populist chord against entities like Big Pharma, her efforts lack the conviction and authenticity of figures like Trump or even Sanders. Curiously, she attempts to take credit for Biden’s employment strategy, another sign of her borrowing heavily from others.
It’s anything but coincidental that Harris chose Michigan and Pennsylvania cities for her political sermonizing; she’s aware of their significance in the electoral demographics. These states, along with Wisconsin, come under the ‘blue wall’ category, crucial for anyone dreaming of acquiring the requisite 270 electoral votes and the Oval Office.
One surprising move the VP has managed to pull off is to erase Trump’s lead in the versatile Sun Belt swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, this apparent gain is overshadowed by her performance in the ‘blue wall,’ where Biden’s support remained sturdy even as he bid adieu to the race.
By selecting VP nominee Tim Walz, the obvious strategy is to appeal to the white voters on the basis of his small-town Nebraska origins and his ‘regular guy’ roles as a teacher and a high school football coach. His love for hunting and gun possession might sway some cultural conservatives, but this play is far from convincing for the aware voters.
On the other side of the aisle, GOP strategists are skeptical about Harris’s Rust Belt campaign. They are quick to highlight Trump’s unflinching resonance among the employed, educated white men, a factor that could also sway working-class Black and Latino men, thus expanding Trump’s base.
The polls reaffirm this trend, indicating a nearly 20% lead of Trump over Harris among men. This lead might be smaller than Harris’s lead with women, but it’s still a compelling one. The myth of Harris making significant inroads within Trump’s robust working-class support base is just that, a myth.
As Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based GOP strategist, succinctly put it: ‘Harris will face monumental challenges in trying to sell her VP record and presidential vision to gain their trust’. As opposed to that, Trump has long secured their trust and continues to hold it, a reflection of the credibility and connection he has managed to build.